摘要
2016年5月,超强厄尔尼诺(El Ni?o)事件已经结束。预计,2016年夏季,我国主雨带位于长江中下游地区。尽管长江流域降水量偏多,但发生类似1998年夏季全流域性大洪水的可能性不大。2016年冬季至2017年春季,赤道中东太平洋可能处于拉尼娜(La Ni?a)状态,有利于2016/2017年冬季我国大部分地区气温偏低,2017年春季我国北方地区沙尘天气正常略偏多。
The El Ni？o event of 2015/2016 has ended in May 2016. It is estimated that the rainfall belt will be mainly in the middle or lower reaches of Changjiang River in summer of 2016. Though the precipitation over the Changjiang River will probably increase, the extensive flood in summer of 1998 is not likely to recur. La Ni？a is likely to develop from the Northern Hemisphere summer to winter 2016—2017. Given this SST situation, the surface air temperature in winter tend to be anomalously cold over most regions of China, and the dust storm during spring of 2017 will be abnormally frequent over northern China.
出处
《中国科学院院刊》
CSCD
2016年第7期830-834,共5页
Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences
基金
国家科技支撑课题(2015BAC03B03)
气象行业专项项目(GYHY 201406020)
关键词
超级厄尔尼诺
短期气候预测
防灾减灾
super El Nino
climate prediction
disaster prevention and mitigation
