摘要
基于2010年全国第六次人口普查数据,本研究运用CPPS人口预测工具,对2016-2035年学前教育适龄幼儿数和在园幼儿数进行预测,并估算所需的园舍规模、教师规模和经费总量。结果表明"全面二孩"政策将从2019年开始对学前教育产生影响,引起学前教育在园幼儿规模迅速扩大,并在2021年达到最大规模,随后"全面二孩"政策作用减弱,学前教育在园幼儿规模逐渐缩小,整体以2021年为分界点呈"A字形"变动趋势。受此影响,学前教育园舍、师资、经费等资源需求随之增长,而我国学前教育现有幼儿园数、教师数和经费投入力度尚不足以应对。对此,应基于学前教育在园幼儿规模的变动趋势,在短期内积极扩充学前教育资源,尤其是教师资源,并充分整合其他学段的教育资源以应对"全面二孩"政策的急需;之后,随着在园幼儿规模缩小,学前教育资源供需矛盾缓解,可以利用已补充的教育资源推动学前教育办学质量的提高。
Based on the sixth national population census data in 2010, this study predicted the number of school-age children and children in kindergartens in 2016-2035 by CPPS, and estimated the demands of kindergartens, teachers and funds. The results showed that the universal two-child policy will have an impact on preschool education from 2019, which will lead to the rapid expansion of the scale of children in preschool education and reach the maximum size in 2021. Then the scale of children in preschool education will decrease with the weakening impact of the universal two-child policy and show an ＂A-shaped＂ trend the scale of children in preschool education, actively expand the resources of preschool education in the short term, especially teacher resources, and fully integrate with existing education resources to meet the demands caused by the universal two .child policy. Later, with the decrease of the scale of children in preschool education, the shortage of educational resources would ease, and we can make use of the expanded educational resources to promote the quality of preschool education.
出处
《学前教育研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第8期3-13,共11页
Studies in Early Childhood Education
基金
国家社科基金重点项目(编号:13ASH005)
中央高校基金资助项目(编号:SWU1509347
SWU1509391)
社科平台项目(编号:15SWUJDPYA04)
关键词
“全面二孩”政策
学前教育
资源配置
人口预测
the universal two-child policy, preschool education, resource allocation, population forecast
