摘要
为探索当较大交通事故发生时交通事故信息对小汽车出行者出行路径选择行为的影响,基于RP与SP调查数据,首先对小汽车出行者在交通事故发生时不改变路径的原因及在不同事故信息度下的路径选择意向进行了分析。然后建立了3种情况下的二值Logistic路径选择模型,并进行了对比研究。最后运用SPSS软件对模型参数进行了标定和检验。结果表明:交通事故信息度对小汽车出行者出行路径的选择行为具有显著影响,随着交通事故信息度的增加,出行者改变出行路径的概率也会增加;交通事故信息发布时间越早,出行者改变出行路径的概率越大;详细交通事故信息对于保守性格者、弹性出行者具有更显著的引导作用。
In order to explore the influence of traffic accident information on car travelers＇ route choice behaviors when great accident occurs,based on RP and SP survey data,the reason why car travelers do not change the path and the intention of changing travel path when providing different traffic accident information degrees are analyzed at first. Then,the binary Logistic models of route choice under 3 conditions are established for comparative study. At last, the parameters of the 3 models are calibrated and tested respectively by SPSS. The result shows that（ 1） the traffic accident information degree has a significant impact on car travelers＇ route choice behaviors,with the increase of accident information degree, the probability of travelers＇ travel route changing will also increase;（ 2） the more timely the accident information release,the greater the probability of travelers＇ route changing;（ 3） detailed accident information has a more prominent role in guiding for the conservative travelers or elastic travelers.
出处
《公路交通科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第7期103-107,113,共6页
Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51308569)
