摘要
"全面二孩"政策的实施会影响未来我国义务教育学龄人口的变化。基于2010年全国第六次人口普查数据,对2016—2035年义务教育学生规模进行预测,并估算所需教师编制、教育经费和校舍建筑规模。研究表明,未来七年内我国小学学生规模不断缩小,初中学生规模由于第三次"婴儿潮"的作用有所增加;"全面二孩"政策对义务教育的影响将从2022年左右开始显现,并在短期内刺激义务教育学生规模迅速扩大,到2030年达到峰值,之后义务教育学生规模会重新开始缩小。对此波动,我国现有义务教育教师编制规模、教育经费投入力度和义务教育标准化建设速度基本可以应对,但应警惕快速城镇化带来的农村义务教育资源浪费和城镇义务教育承载能力不足等问题。建议谨慎对待农村撤点并校,同时加强教师队伍质量建设,并引导地方根据实际情况制定不同学段的教育战略规划。
The universal two-child policy will affect the school-aged population of Chinese compulsory education in the future. Based on the sixth nationwide population census data, the scale and structure of school-aged population in the stage of compulsory education are predicted, and the number of teachers, funds and school buildings needed during 2016-2035 are estimated. Results show that the number of primary school students in China will continue to reduce in the next 7 years, and the number of middle school students will be increased because of the third ＂baby boom＂. The impact of the universal two-child poliey will emerge from around 2022, and will cause a rapid increase in the number of students in compulsory education in a short term, but the effect will be weakened from 2030. So the number of teachers in compulsory education, financial capacity and the speed of compulsory education standardized construction are enough to deal with the changes in the number of students in compulsory education. On the contrary, the problems of the waste of educational resources in rural areas, the shortage of educational resources in cities and towns caused by rapid urbanization should be concerned about. The study suggests teachers＂ ability should be improved, schools＂ closure and merger should be treated cautiously, and different governments should make education strategic plans according to local reality.
出处
《教育研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第7期22-31,共10页
Educational Research
基金
2013年度教育部发展报告项目"教育体制综合改革发展报告"(项目编号:13JBGP040)的研究成果
关键词
全面二孩
义务教育
教育规划
人口预测
the universal two-child policy, compulsory education, education planning, population prediction
