摘要
目的：研究评估改良的POSSUM（Portsmouth-POSSUM,P-POSSUM）在食管癌患者术后死亡风险中预测能力。方法：对2012年1月到2012年12月四川省肿瘤医院556例接受食管癌手术的患者进行回顾性分析,收集资料进行P-POSSUM评分,预测术后死亡发生率,与实际值进行比较,并用实际例数/预测例数（O/E值）及ROC曲线验证该评分系统的预测能力。结果：P-POSSUM评分预测的死亡发生率为5.22%（29例）,与实际的死亡发生率3.42%（19例）比较,差异无统计学意义（χ~2=2.177,P=0.140）,O/E为0.66,ROC曲线下面积（AUC）为0.713,P=0.002。结论：P-POSSUM评分在食管癌术后死亡风险方面具有较好的预测能力,对临床诊治具有一定指导意义。
Objective： The present study was designed to evaluate the ability of the Portsmouth-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the en Umeration of Mortality and Morbidity（ P-POSSUM） to predict mortality in patients with esophageal carcinoma undergoing oesophagectomy. Methods： P-POSSUM predictor equations for mortality were applied retrospectively to 556 patients who had undergone oesophagectomy due to cancer from 1st January to 31 st December 2012 in Sichuan Cancer Hospital and Institute. Observed mortality rates were compared with expected rates by P-POSSUM scoring system. Observe / expect（ O / E） and ROC curve were applied to assess the ability of scoring system. Results： The observed and predicted mortality rates were 5. 22%（ 29 cases） and 3. 42%（ 19 cases） respectively（ χ~2= 2. 177,P =0. 140）. O / E was 0. 66 and AUC of ROC was 0. 713（ P = 0. 002）. Coclusion： It suggests that P-POSSUM has value for predicting the risk of mortality in patients undergoing oesophagectomy.
出处
《肿瘤预防与治疗》
2016年第3期149-153,共5页
Journal of Cancer Control And Treatment
基金
四川省卫生厅科研课题(编号120051)
