摘要
理解贫困的本质、短期性、长期性特征,以及贫困动态性的决定因素依旧是我国精准扶贫问题的关键。基于浙江、湖北、云南三省的微观调研面板数据,运用马尔可夫转移矩阵分析了农户在贫困和非贫困的转变概率;利用危害分析方法研究农户脱离贫困线、进入贫困线以及重新进入贫困线的概率及主要影响因素。结果表明,基于相对贫困线划分,农户脱离贫困线以及进入贫困线的概率与贫困时间成反比;非工作的家庭成员个数、受教育年限、家庭生产经营类型以及村级特征变量,均对农户脱离贫困线、进入贫困线以及重新进入贫困线的概率有重要影响;在贫困问题的动态性方面,三个省份具有明显的跨时空特征。因此,建立健全保险制度、提高农产品市场透明度、促进农业部门整合等一些旨在减少收入差距的短期调控性政策,对农户脱离贫困状态以及避免农户重新进入贫困状态具有重要作用。
Poverty alleviation has been always the important issue in the policy strategy. To better under the nature of poverty, especially its persistence and the determinants of out of poverty and re-enter into poverty are key for poverty alleviation. Using rural household panel data from three Chinese provinces, we ifrst use the relative poverty line among the provinces to describe the status of being in the poverty, out of poverty and re-entry into poverty. Secondly, we use Markov transition matrix to analyze the probability of shifting between poverty and non-poverty. Finally, we use hazard analysis framework to identify the probability of out of poverty and re-enter into poverty. And we examine the duration dependence of households’ chance of exiting and re-entering poverty. Results suggest that, in general, poverty seems to be mainly a transitory phenomenon irrespective of the underlying poverty line. The number of non-working family members, education, and several village characteristics seem to be the most important covariates. The analysis reveals signiifcant differences between the provinces in our sample. However, the nature of duration dependence differs considerably across provinces and poverty concepts. Therefore, policies that aim to reduce income variability via insurance systems, raising transparency in agricultural markets or fostering agricultural sector’s integration seem to be the most appropriate to facilitate exit from poverty and reducing re-entry.
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第4期740-746,共7页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71373255
71303226)~~
关键词
贫困
相对贫困线
动态性
马尔可夫转移矩阵
危害分析
poverty
relative poverty line
dynamics
Markov transition matrix
hazard analysis
