摘要
水文预报的涨落差法,其传播时间由于洪水特性不同而变化,上、下游涨落差的比例因子k_h及k_q影响因素较为复杂,使得涨落差模型由于其非线性问题而影响预报精度。当水文观测数据足够时,识别出与现时上游断面涨落过程相似的同断面历史涨落过程,通过与此对应的下游断面历史涨落过程,识别出现时下游断面预报的径流参数,如水位、流量等。由此,构建了相似涨落差径流预报模型,通过清远观音洲水电站的应用,表明了模型可获得较高的预报精度。
As for the fluctuation difference model, the propagation time varies due to the flood characteristics;the up and down stream fluctuation difference of scale factor on kh and kq factors is more complicated; therefore, the fluctuation difference model, due to its nonlinear problem, affects the forecast accuracy. When hydrological observation data is sufficient, the historical fluctuation process similar to the section with current upstream section fluctuation process is identified. Through the downstream section of history of the corresponding fluctuation process, the runoff parameters of instant downstream section, such as water level and flux act, are identified. Thus, the similar fluctuation difference runoff forecast model is established, the application of which at Guanyinzhou Hydropower Station indicates a higher forecast accuracy of the model.
出处
《广东水利电力职业技术学院学报》
2016年第2期5-8,12,共5页
Journal of Guangdong Polytechnic of Water Resources and Electric Engineering
关键词
水文径流预报
扩散波
涨落差法
水文相似分析
hydrological runoff forecast
diffusion wave
fluctuation difference method
hydrological similarity analysis
