摘要
我国P2P行业发展迅猛,但平台欺诈、倒闭事件也层出不穷。如何从鱼龙混杂的P2P平台中识别、规避问题平台,是政府监管和投资者决策面临的重大问题。本文尝试对问题平台的基本特征进行初步概括,并从平台实力、标的特征、风控能力、治理水平等方面构建变量和模型,以提炼能够甄别问题平台的风险因素。研究发现:利率奇高是识别问题平台的最重要变量;同时,实力薄弱、标的类型单一、风控能力欠缺,亦是问题平台的前兆。这些风险因素不但能预测新平台出问题的概率,对资深平台是否会出问题也有良好识别能力。在控制上述变量的条件下,其他变量(如保障模式、资金托管等)不再有预测力。本文从"平台风险"的新视角出发,拓展了P2P领域的研究,并为政府监管和投资者决策提供了参考。
P2P industry has been growing rapidly in recent years,but an increasing number of platforms also cheat or collapse at the same time. How to identify and avoid potential problems platform has become a major challenge for government regulation and investor decision-making. We describe basic facts of problem platforms and construct variables from strength,subject characteristics,risk control,and governance to detect problem platform. We find high interest level is the most important risk factor for problem platforms. Meanwhile,weak strength,less diversified subject types,and weak risk control capacity also predict problem platforms. These risk factors have predicting power for both newly established platforms and old ones. Once these factors are controlled,other variables lose predicting power. Our study provides references for investors' decision making and government regulation.
出处
《会计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第6期38-45,95,共8页
Accounting Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71302105
71372041
71572100)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地基金(13JJD790019)
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-12-0899)
教育部人文社科研究项目(13YJA790057)的资助
