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基于贝叶斯网络的基坑围护工程施工风险评估 被引量:21

Construction risk assessment of foundation pit engineering based on methods of Bayesian network
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摘要 通过对全国130个基坑事故的调查分析,得出围护结构渗流破坏的主要影响因素及其重要度和发生的自然概率,在此基础上结合福州万宝城市地下综合体工程,根据项目工程地质和周边环境情况及施工方案,采用WBSRBS故障树法对基坑围护结构(钻孔灌注桩和SMW工法三轴搅拌桩)进行风险识别,然后用基于贝叶斯网络模糊综合评估法对其施工风险进行评估.通过风险评估得出围护结构渗流破坏、墙体蜂窝离层、接缝错位变形、降水不力和钻孔灌注桩破坏的风险等级都为4级,而止水桩与挡土桩弥合程度不均匀风险等级为3级,与工程实际相符,使基坑围护结构的安全性评价更合理,评判结果可信度高,避免风险事故发生. Through the analysis of the 130 accidents investigation of foundation-pit projects, main influence factors and their importance degree and the natural probability of leakage failure occurrence in retaining structure and water proof curtain were drawn. Based on the geology, surrounding environment and construction scheme of Fuzhou Wangbao underground complex project, ways of WBS-RBS fault tree are introduced to analyze the risk identification of retaining structures and water proof curtain (bored piles and SMW triaxial mixing piles) , and fuzzy synthetic evaluation methods of Bayesian network are used to eval- uate the construction risk in the whole process. According to the assessment of the project, the risk grade of leakage failure of retaining structure , honeycomb and abscission layer of wall ,the dislocation and deformation of joints, inadequate precipitation and destruction of bored-piles are determined as level 4, but no-match between water-proof curtains and retaining piles were determined as level 3. The credibility of the evaluation result is higher. The estimated results are consistent with the actual progress of the project; and the safety evaluation of foundation pit engineering is more reasonable; and the credibility of the evaluation results is higher, so as to avoid the risk accidents of project.
出处 《武汉大学学报(工学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2016年第5期733-739,共7页 Engineering Journal of Wuhan University
基金 福建省教育厅产学研重点资助科技项目(编号:JY2012ZD008) 福建省自然科学基金面上项目(编号:2012J01188)
关键词 风险评估 贝叶斯网络 模糊综合评估法 钻孔灌注桩 SMW工法三轴搅拌桩 risk assessment Bayesian network fuzzy synthetic evaluation method bored pile SMW triaxial mixing pile
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