摘要
住宅用地规模预测是引导城市开发建设与经济发展的一项重要任务,传统预测方法因忽略了转型发展过程中的变化因素而导致预测的局限性。本文分析了传统预测方法与城市转型发展需求之间的矛盾,提出了在转型发展背景下住宅用地规模预测的三大步骤,即"判断阶段发展趋势、选取科学预测方法、多元拟定指标参数"。最后以正处于转型发展阶段的苏州市吴中区为例,对住宅用地规模预测进行实证检验。
Urban residential land scale prediction is an important task to guide urban development. But traditional forecasting methods do not meet the requirements of transformation of urban development. This paper conducted a systematic study of the methods currently used to predict the scale of industrial land and analyzed the applicability of traditional forecasting methods in the context of urban transformation. Then three systematic steps were proposed to reflect the new requirements for residential land： determine the development trend of the current stage, select the scientific prediction methods and synthetically formulate arguments. And finally, specific prediction methods of Wuzhong district was illustrated as an example.
出处
《现代城市研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第8期67-71,85,共6页
Modern Urban Research
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(14YJAZH098)
江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目
关键词
转型发展
住宅用地
规模预测
吴中区
transformation
residential land
land scale prediction
Wuzhong district
