摘要
不同类型的突发事件作用于不同的区域往往产生各不相同的灾害后果.为此,本文基于灾害后果演化过程的关键因素——承灾体,研究并构建了灾害后果演化模型.首先,通过对大量各类突发事件灾害后果的分析,将各类承灾体状态统一分为正常、受损和损毁三种状态,以承灾体状态为节点,承灾体状态之间的相互影响关系为边,构建了灾害后果演化模型;其次,综合考虑演化过程中致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的脆弱性及应急响应行动的作用效果,确定了承灾体状态的演化规则;最后通过算例仿真说明了本文方法的应用:第一组仿真分别研究了各类承灾体不同状态的演化过程;第二组仿真研究了五种不同的应急响应策略在不同的初始能力下的效果差异.
There tend to be diverse disaster consequence, when different kinds of emergencies occur in different regions. Therefore, based on the hazard affected bodies as the critical factor, the model was studied and built. Firstly, through the analysis of many kinds of emergency disaster consequences, the statuses of different kinds of hazard affected bodies were uniformly classified as normal, damaged and destroyed. Taking the statuses of hazard affected bodies as the node, and the interaction relationship between them as the edge, the network of the status was built. Secondly, hazards during evolution, vulnerability of hazard affected bodies and effects of response actions were considered to set the rules of status evolution. Finally, two simulations were done to explain the application of this method： the first simulation studies evolution processes of two kinds of hazard affected bodies respectively, i.e., acted by hazard or not; and the second one studies the different performance of five strategies under initial response ability.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第8期2068-2077,共10页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71371039)
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71501022)
国家自然科学重大研究计划之培育项目(91024003)
国家自然科学重大研究计划之集成平台项目(91024031)~~
关键词
承灾体
承灾体状态网络
影响关系
灾害后果演化
应急响应策略
hazard affected bodies
network of the status of hazard affected bodies
interaction relationship
disaster evolution
response strategies
