摘要
基于水稻控制灌溉制度和水量平衡原理,考虑水稻移栽日期和生育期受温度变化的影响,研究了1961-2010年灌溉需水量变化规律,同时基于CMIP5三种气候模式下的4种气候情景（RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5）评估了未来气候变化对水稻控制灌溉生育期以及灌溉需水量的影响。结果表明：过去50年,气温的显著升高导致了移栽日期的显著提前和生育期长度的显著缩短,降水量的显著增加导致灌溉需水量在需水量小幅上升的基础上显著下降;在未来气候条件下,水稻移栽日期大幅提前11~36d,生育期长度缩短4~26d。水稻需水量在BCC-CSM1.1（m）和HadGEM2-ES两种模式下均大于基准期均值,而在GFDL-ESM2M模式下呈现出一定的下降趋势,水稻灌溉需水量变化特征与需水量相似,但变化幅度更大。
Based on rice controlled irrigation schedule and water balance theory, irrigation water requirement of 1961--2010 was cal- culated by taking rice transplant data and growth duration into eonsideration. At the same time, irrigation water requirement of 21st century under four scenarios of three GCMs of CMIP5 was also investigated. The result shows that： in the past 50 years, the signifi- cant increase of temperature lead to the dramatic decrease of rice transplant date and growth duration, the increase of precipitation re- sult in irrigation water requirement decrease based on slightly increase of water requirement; under the future climate condition, rice transplant date would be 11~36 days in advance, while the growth duration would be shorten for 4~26 days. Rice water require- ment greater than the average of baseline period under BCC-CSM1.1（m） and HadGEM2-ES. However, the irrigation water require- ment shows downtrend under GFDL-ESM2M. Rice irrigation water requirement is similar to water requirement but has lager magnitude.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2016年第8期105-108,共4页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(51379057)
关键词
气候变化
水稻
灌溉需水量
灌溉制度
控制灌溉
TM模型
生育期
climate change
rice
irrigation water requirement
irrigation schedule
controlled irrigation
TM model
growth duration
