摘要
【目的】分析山西苹果主产地苹果产量与其不同物候期气候因子的关系,探求山西苹果产量的关键气候影响因子,为山西苹果种植防灾增产提供参考。【方法】运用灰关联分析法对1981~2013年山西苹果不同物候期（芽期、花期、初果期、果实膨大期和成熟期）主要气候因子（降水量、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、日照时数和平均相对湿度）与苹果产量的关系进行研究,确定不同物候期影响苹果产量的关键气候因子,并使用GM（1,1）模型和多元回归方法相结合预测2016~2018年苹果产量。【结果】山西苹果产量对物候期气候因子的敏感度为0.7318~0.8575。芽期、花期、初果期、果实膨大期和成熟期与苹果产量关联度最高的气候因子分别为最高气温、平均气温、最低气温、最低气温和最高气温。按地区研究山西苹果产量与不同物候期气候因子的关系发现,对临猗苹果产量影响较大的气象因子为芽期平均气温,吉县为芽期最高气温,芮城为花期平均气温,万荣和祁县为初果期最低气温。预测2016~2018年山西苹果产量仍会稳步增长。【结论】芽期、花期和初果期的温度类因子是山西地区苹果产量的主要气候影响因素,山西苹果种植要重点预防芽期、初果期低温及成熟期高温多雨的不利影响。
[Objective]In order to provide reference and suggestion for preventing disaster and increasing apple yield in apple planting area, the relationships between apple yield and different climate factors of apple phenophase in Shanxi was analyzed to know the key climate factors affecting apple yield. [Method]Using grey correlation analysis method, the relationships between different climate factors（including precipitation, average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and average relative humidity） in phenophase （budding stage, flowering stage, initial fruiting stage, fruit swelling stage and maturation stage） and apple yield were studied to know the key climate factors affecting apple yield during 1981-2013. Then the apple yield during 2016-2018 was predicted by GM（ 1,1 ） model and multiple regression methods. [Result]The results showed that, the sensitivity of apple yield to climate factors in phenophase ranged from 0.7318 to 0.8575 in Shanxi. At budding, flowering, initial fruiting, fruit swelling and maturation stages, the climate fac- tors correlated most with apple yield were maximum temperature, average temperature, minimum temperature, minimum temperature and maximum temperature, respectively. In addition, the research results of different apple planting areas showed that, the average temperature and the maximum temperature at budding stage had greater influence on apple yield in Linyi and Jixian, respectively, the average temperature at flowering stage had greater influence on apple yield in Ruieheng, and the minimum temperature at initial fruiting stage had greater impact to apple yield in Wanrong and Qixian. Furthermore, the yield prediction results showed that, apple yield would maintain steady growth in Shanxi during 2016- 2018. [ Conclusion ]The main climate factors affecting apple yield are temperature-related factors at budding, flowering and initial fruiting stages. The apple yield increases in a fluctuating tendency and will continue to increase on the whole. More attentions should be paid to low temperature at budding and initial fruiting stages, and raininess and high temperature at maturation stage in the coming years in Shanxi.
出处
《南方农业学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第7期1146-1154,共9页
Journal of Southern Agriculture
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71571104)
