摘要
文章基于中国人口普查、统计年鉴公布的数据,探讨了超大城市人口调控困境、原因及应对思路。研究结果表明,中国超大城市人口调控不同程度地面临人口规模、人口分布和人口活力困局。其原因可能在于相关部门尚未充分把握集经济、社会、管理于一体的人口系统思维,尚未充分明晰人口影响因素之间的层级关系,而且在人口调控问题上存在4个认识误区,即"减人"与"添秤"可同步推进、"拆市场"和"产业升级"即"减人口"、人口调控就是"减规模"、人口调控就是针对个人施策。基于上述分析,文章提出以下政策建议:(1)建立"条件约束型"人口决策机制,以控制城市开发强度;(2)建立居民基本台账系统,以实现人口管理和服务的统一;(3)建立人口结构的市场调节机制,以确保城市的生机活力;(4)打造人口圈层分布的规划格局,以带动人口向外疏解;(5)树立家庭需求整体谋划的调控理念,以提升人口流出的稳定性。
Based on the population census and statistical yearbooks of China,this paper discusses the population problems,the dilemma of population regulation and countermeasures in confronting mega-cities.The results show that the population regulation in those mega-cities is to varying degrees facing difficulties about size,spatial distribution and viability of population.It is probably due to the fact that the relevant population regulation authorities lack a systematic thinking which integrates economic,social and management factors,and have not fully understood the hierarchy relationship of factors affecting population change.Furthermore,there are four misunderstandings in population regulation,i.e.being able to achieve 'population reduction' and 'rapid economic growth' simultaneously;taking 'market dismantling' and 'industrial upgrading' as 'population reduction';taking population regulation as reducing population size;and taking individuals as the focus of population regulation policy practice.Based on the above findings,the paper puts forth the following policy recommendations for mega-cities' population regulation:(1)establishing the 'conditionally constrained' decision-making mechanism for population regulation in order to better control the intensity of urban development;(2)building a basic residents account system to realize the unification of population management and services;(3)establishing market mechanism of population structure adjustment to ensure the vitality of mega-cities;(4) forging population planning favoring circular distribution structure to promote population flow-out;and(5) generalizing regulation philosophy of the overall demand of family planning to better enhance the stability of the outflow of population.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第4期61-73,127,共13页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
北京市社会科学基金项目重大课题"北京人口规模调控决策研究"(编号14ZDA25)的阶段性成果
