摘要
文章选取扩招幅度较大的省份作为扩招政策影响的代表，在省级面板数据的基础上，利用双重差分法考察了高校扩招政策对人口城镇化的影响。结果发现，一方面，高校扩招促进了人口城镇化。与高校扩招前的1992～1998年相比，1999～2013年高校扩招政策对人口城镇化增长率的贡献为2．7％。另一方面，高校扩招对人口城镇化增长率的贡献出现了边际效应递减的趋势。1999～2002年扩招政策的贡献率为8．7％，2003～2006年为3．6％，2007～2010年则为-9．5％。虽然实证结果显示扩招政策对人口城镇化增长率的贡献边际递减，甚至出现负值，但并不意味着高等教育发展对人口城镇化的推进作用减弱。文章认为，随着人口城镇化的深度发展及高等教育资源数量上的饱和，高等教育的发展模式如果与以往一样，只是单纯增加高等教育的数量，那么，高等教育对人口城镇化的促进效果将会大大减弱。如何提升高等教育的质量，并且推行与之配套的政策是进一步推进人口城镇化的关键。
This paper selects provinces with significant higher education expansion as samples of impact by expansionary policies,and based on the provincial level panel data studies the impact of the expansion policy on China's population urbanization by using the double difference method.The result finds that,on the one hand,the expansion of higher education promotes the population urbanisation.Compared with before expansion of higher education period(1992—1998),the contribution of higher education expansion policy on the population urbanisation's growth rate is 2.7% from 1999 to 2013.On the other hand,the expansion of higher education's contribution to the urbanisation of population growth appears a diminishing marginal effect.The expansionary policies' contribution rate was 8.7% from 1999 to 2002,3.6% from 2003 to 2006,and-9.5% from 2007 to 2010.Although empirical results show that the contribution of the policy to the population urbanisation growth rate is diminishing marginally,or even negatively,it does not mean a weakened role of higher education in promoting the population urbanization.It should be noted that,with the depth development of population urbanisation and the saturation of the number of high education resources,if the pattern is unchanged as the increase of the number of higher education,promotion effect to population urbanisation will be greatly reduced.Improving the quality of higher education and the implementing accompanying policies are the key to the promotion of China's population urbanisation.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第4期105-112,128,共8页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
