摘要
目的估计2010—2015年北京市顺义区流行性感冒（流感）相关超额死亡情况。方法收集北京市顺义区2010—2015年死因监测数据和流感病原学监测数据,分年龄组拟合负二项回归模型,估计流感相关超额死亡。结果 2010—2011至2014—2015年度,北京市顺义区年均观察死亡率为643.9/10万（范围：594.8~689.1/10万）,其中呼吸及循环系统、流感及肺炎疾病死亡分别占全死因的65.46%和1.95%。以全死因、呼吸及循环系统疾病、流感及肺炎疾病估计顺义区平均每年度超额死亡率为分别为8.8/10万（95%CI：3.4~15.1/10万）、7.3/10万（95%CI：2.3~13.4/10万）和0.5/10万（95%CI：0.2~1.0/10万）。≥65岁年龄组人群年均超额死亡率高于全年龄组。A（H3N2）亚型流感病原学监测阳性率每升高1%,可导致流感及肺炎疾病、呼吸及循环系统疾病、全死因死亡分别增加0.99%（95%CI：0.06~1.95）、0.32%（95%CI：0.01~0.64）和0.31%（95%CI：0.01~0.61）;A（H1N1）pdm09亚型流感病原学监测阳性率每升高1%,可导致呼吸及循环系统疾病、全死因死亡分别增加0.77%（95%CI：0.17~1.37）和0.72%（95%CI：0.07~1.39）。结论北京市顺义区流感流行每年度可造成一定量的超额死亡数,尤其是对于≥65岁年龄组,下一步有必要对顺义区流感疾病负担开展全面系统的评估。
Objective To estimate the excess mortality associated with influenza in Shunyi District of Beijing from 2010 to 2015.Methods Weekly mortality data of Shunyi District Beijing,as well as the weekly influenza surveillance data from 2010 to 2015 were collected to estimate the influenza-associated excess mortality of different age groups by constructing negative binomial regression models.Results From 2010/2011 to 2014/2015,the average annual mortality rate was 643.9 deaths per 100 000（594.8/105~689.1/105）.The respiratory and circulatory diseases and pneumonia and influenza diseases accounted for 65.46% and 1.95%respectively.The annual excess mortality rate per 100,000 people was 8.8（95% CI：3.4 ~ 15.1） for all-cause,7.3（95% CI：2.3 ~13.4） for respiratory and circulatory diseases and 0.5（95% CI：0.2 ~ 1.0） for pneumonia and influenza diseases.The impact of influenza on mortality was significantly higher among those aged ≥65 years.An increase of positive rate of A（H3N2） by 1% would augment the mortality：for pneumonia and influenza diseases by 0.99%（95% CI：0.06 ~ 1.95）,for respiratory and circulatory diseases0.32%（95% CI：0.01 ~ 0.64）,and for all-cause 0.31%（95% CI：0.01 ~ 0.61）.An increase of positive rate of A（H1N1） pdm 09 by1% would augment the mortality for respiratory and circulatory diseases by 0.77%（95% ：CI：0.17 ~ 1.37） and 0.72%（95% CI：0.07~ 1.39） for all-cause.Conclusion The impact of influenza on the mortality in Shunyi District of Beijing was substantial,particularly among the elderly of the ≥ 65 age group.More comprehensive studies may be needed to estimate the full impact of influenza.
出处
《公共卫生与预防医学》
2016年第4期26-30,共5页
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
关键词
流感
超额死亡
疾病负担
负二项回归模型
Influenza
Excess mortality
Disease burden
Negative binomial regression model
