摘要
盐岩储库建腔期事故发生的频度甚至高于运营期,如何对建腔期储库进行风险分析和安全评价已成为储库建设面临的首要问题。建立了盐岩储库建腔期地下系统故障树模型和多层次、多指标安全评价体系,并根据试验和数值模拟结果构建了各评价指标的评分模型。结合工程实际,用模糊灰关联分析法对金坛某储气库进行了安全评价,得出等级为IV级稳定。为了进一步确保建腔期储库的安全性,用三角模糊数表示基本事件失效概率可能性分布函数,通过计算各最小割集所代表的故障模式与顶上事件的灰色关联度,得出腔体埋深过浅、人为操作不当、夹层垮塌、顶板预留岩层厚度过薄、内管临界流速小于卤水流速、自激振动和动力失稳等是可能导致金坛某储气库建腔期事故的主要因素。
This paper is attempting to analyze and identify the potentially risk factors in the construction period in the storage place by way of establishing a fault tree model for the underground salt rock gas storage. We have also studied the nature of the so-called salt rock as a kind of ideal place for the underground storing gasoline and natural gas. So far as we know,little research has been done on how to get rid of such accidents though the so-called salt rock collapse can be taken as a kind of serious disasters in the coal mining production. To solve the aforementioned problem,we have quoted 21 basic events that are likely to cause such underground salt rock gas storage failure during the construction period and then established a multi-level,multi-index safety evaluation model in accordance with the different characteristic features of such events. For the research purpose,we have also set up the scoring models for the various evaluation indicators on the basis of the experimental and numerical simulation results with the hierarchy analysis method being applied to the various evaluation indicator weights derived and fuzzy-gray relational analysis used for the safety evaluation on the gas storage space in Jintan. To make sure the safety of the salt rock gas storage further during the construction period,we have also conducted a risk analysis of the influential factors and examined its stability by level IV-th grade,with the triangular fuzzy numbers to denote the distribution functions of the failure probability of basic events for the shortage of the accurate probability evaluation. In addition,we have derived the main factors that could lead to the accidents during the construction period at the gas storage at Jintan while working out the gray degree of the correlation data between the various minimum cutting sets and the top events,such as the shallow cavity depth,the unreasonable distance of two nozzle and the position of intermediate tube,the thin top-roof rock layer thickness,the large pressure difference between the inside and outside of cavity,the small pillar width,the inappropriate height to diameter ratio of the cavity. All the above preventive measures can be oriented and adopted in hoping to prevent the likely occurring failure accidents.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第4期32-37,共6页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2009CB724606)
国家自然科学基金项目(51304256)
关键词
安全工程
盐岩储库
建腔期
安全评价指标体系
模糊灰关联分析
safety engineering
salt rock storage
construction period
safety evaluation system
fuzzy correlation analysis
