摘要
利用铜仁地区2010—2014年以来61起滑坡事件对应的区域气象站以及气象台站逐小时降水资料,采用统计分析的方法分析了滑坡发生前后的降水类型,建立了不同时效的有效雨量和激发雨量组合的预报模型。结果表明:滑坡前期3天累积雨量与滑坡暴发当日3h最大雨量组合预报模型的准确率最大,空报率最小,滑坡暴发当日24h雨量与滑坡暴发当日3h最大雨量组合预报模型的准确率次之,并分别得到这两种情况下判断滑坡是否发生的判别曲线,根据判别曲线和24h及3h降水预报,可以制作铜仁地区的滑坡预报。
Using the hourly precipitation data from automatic meteorological stations and meteorological observation stations corresponding to 61 landslides from 2010 to 2014in Tongren,the eastern Guizhou,the types of rainfall before and after landslide are analyzed by using statistical analysis.The prediction method of landslides is discussed by using different combinations between cumulative rainfall and triggering rainfall.It is found that the forecast accuracy of the model is the best,and the false alarm rate is the smallest when using cumulative rainfall from two days before the day landslide occurred and the triggering maximum rainfall in 3hours of the day landslide occurred.The model using the cumulative rainfall of the day landslide occurred and the triggering maximum rainfall in 3hours of the day landslide occurred takes the second place.The discriminate curve whether the landslide occurred can be obtained in both cases.A landslide can be predicted according to the discriminate curve and precipitation forecasts for the next 24 hours or 3hours.
出处
《气象科技》
北大核心
2016年第4期680-685,共6页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
中国气象局山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程项目"贵州省开展省级精细化暴雨洪涝灾害风险普查"
中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2013031)"贵州省气候变化影响评估及应对服务"资助
关键词
临界雨量
滑坡
区域站
预报模型
critical rainfall
landslide
automatic meteorological station
forecast model
