摘要
唐山地震40周年之际,回顾我国地震预测预报探索的科学实践历程,总结其进展,讨论遇到的科学与实践问题,展望未来,这是最好的纪念.实现地震预报的关键是短临预报,震前是否有前兆,是否可以观测到,是否可应用于预测地震并取得减灾实效,这都是地震预报探索需要阐明的问题,即地震预报的可行性研究.本文主要对地震前兆及其物理基础、地震能否预测的争论以及观测的重要性等一些重要科学与实践问题进行讨论,并在此基础上认识到,地震是有前兆的,且前兆很复杂,在充分研究前兆的基础上地震预报是可能的;此外,地震预测预报探索需从可行性研究进入更高的探索阶段.
The best way for the memory of the 40 th anniversary of the 1976 Tangshan MS7.8earthquake is to review the scientific practice of earthquake prediction research in China,summarize its progress,and discuss scientific and practical problems that we have faced to and prospect for the future.The key to realize earthquake prediction is the short and imminent prediction.Whether there are earthquake precursors,whether such precursors can be observed,and whether the precursors can be used to predict earthquakes and reduce the disasters,which are the questions that the earthquake prediction research must answer.In other words,positive answers to such questions confirm the feasibility of earthquake predictions.This paper discusses key scientific and practical problems,such as the detection of earthquake precursors,the physical basis of earthquake precursors,the debate on whether earthquake can be predicted,and the importance of observations,and then comes to the conclusion that there are precursors to earthquake though they are very complex,and it is possible to predict earthquakes.Earthquake prediction research should be developed from phase of feasibility study into the phase of deep exploration.
出处
《地震学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第4期564-579,658,共16页
Acta Seismologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金(41090291)资助
关键词
唐山地震
地震观测
地震前兆
地震监测
地震预测
地震预报
可行性
Tangshan earthquake
earthquake observation
earthquake precursor
earthquake monitoring
earthquake prediction
earthquake forecast
feasibility
