摘要
[目的]建立工布江达以上尼洋曲流域的降水—径流关系,构建该流域的致洪临界雨量指标,以期为开展山洪气象预警工作提供参考。[方法]根据流域暴雨洪水致灾机制,利用地面气象观测和CMORPH资料,基于HBV水文模型进行计算分析。[结果]利用2007—2011年观测数据对HBV水文模型的参数优化和率定,模拟数据与观测数据的确定性系数为0.91,NASH效率系数为0.89;采用2012—2014年观测数据进行验证,确定性系数为0.86,NASH效率系数为0.85,率定期和验证期的平均相对误差均为3.1%,表明经过率定的HBV模型对尼洋曲上游流域具有较好的适用性。[结论]尼洋曲流域的洪水过程不仅与实时降水的面雨量有关,还与前期基础水位有关,致灾临界面雨量随前期基础水位升高而减小,并且随着前期水位的变化,临界雨量值呈现了非线性响应特征。
[Objective] This paper studied the relationship between rainfall and runoff over upper Nyang river above Gongbo-gyamda Hydrological station to find the critical rainfall that will result to flood. We expected to provide reference for the meteorology pre-warning of mountain torrents. [Methods] Data of ground meteorological observation and CMORPH were used. The upper Nyang river watershed of the hazard critical rainfall was obtained according to the HBV rainfall-runoff model. [Results] After parameter optimization and calibration, the HBV model had a certainty coefficient of 0.91 and NASH efficiency coefficient of 0.89 in the phase of calibration during 2007-2011. Model was validated using the data of 2012-2014, in this phase, certainty factor was 0.86 and NASH efficiency was 0.85. For both the phases of calibration and validating, relative error was averaged as 3.1 %, which implied that the model was applicable. [Conclusion] The flood process in Nyang river basin was not only related to the rainfall in whole basin, but also to the previous water level. The critical rainfall of flood inducement decreased with the increase of previous water level, and vice versa. The critical rainfall showed a nonlinear responsive characteristics.
出处
《水土保持通报》
CSCD
2016年第4期22-26,共5页
Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"西藏高原灾害性天气分析和预报方法研究"(41465006)
高原气候与气候变化创新团队基金项目(XZQX201302)
关键词
尼洋曲流域
临界面雨量
HBV模型
洪水灾害
Nyang River basin
interfacial precipitation
HBV model
flood disaster
