摘要
本文借鉴完全竞争市场厂商均衡理论,构建了流通产业与国民经济的"最优匹配"、"技术调节"、"效率中介"等三个理论假说;运用滚动估计方法,采用2003-2014年省级面板数据,对三个理论假说进行了实证检验。结果发现,随着流通产业与国民经济的资本匹配比递增,其对国民经济的影响力呈现"倒U型"变化规律,存在"最优匹配"机制;流通产业技术进步会导致最优匹配比下降,即技术替代资本;效率路径是流通产业影响国民经济的一个传导机制,中介效果在最优匹配时达到最佳;经验证实,我国约一半省份依然匹配不足,极少数省份出现匹配过度。相对于"产能过剩","产能不足"才是我国流通领域更需广泛关注的问题。
Taking the Firm Equilibrium in the fully competitive market as the theoretical framework, we have constructed three hypotheses on ＂optimal allocation＂, ＂technical effect＂ and ＂mediating effect＂ between circulation industry and national economy. Adopting the method of rolling estimate, based on the use of Chinars Provincial panel data between 2003 and 2014, we have made a theoretical analysis and empirical study about three hypotheses. The theoretical analysis reveals the existence of the optimal allocation between circulation industry and national economy. The circulation influence on national economy shows the dynamic feature of ＂inverted U type＂ with the increasing allocation ratio of circulation industry in national economy. The maximum influence corresponds to the optimal allocation ratio. The transmission mechanism of allocation effect on national economy is through path of the total factor productivity, and the maximum mediating effect is achieved at optimal allocation ratio. About 1/2 provinces are still insufficient configuration, while few provinces are excessive configuration. Compared to ＂excessive configuration＂, ＂insufficient configuration＂ deserves more attention.
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第9期97-111,共15页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学规划课题“市场决定作用背景下流通产业先导作用机制的理论与实证”(14YJA790070)
关键词
流通产业
最优匹配
产能过剩
产能不足
Circulation Industry, Optimal Allocation, Excessive Configuration, Insufficient Configuration
