摘要
利用SWAT模型和IPCC第五次评估报告中全球气候模式BCC-CSM 1.1数据,对未来气候变化RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 8.5共3种典型排放情景对洪湖流域水资源的影响进行了模拟研究。结果表明:SWAT模型对洪湖流域供水资源模拟的适用性较好,洪湖流域在未来RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 8.5排放情景下的温度增幅分别为1.4℃、1.9℃和2.4℃,降水变率分别为-3.20%、7.60%和7.90%。SWAT模型模拟结果表明,未来3种情景下随着温度上升洪湖流域实际蒸散发量均略增加,径流受降水影响显著且变化不同,RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下地表径流及地下径流均增加,RCP 8.5情景比RCP4.5情景下地表径流增加多;且各种重现期的洪峰流量和洪水发生频次均增加,RCP 2.6情景下地表径流和地下径流减少。3种情景下径流变异系数较基准期均略增大,说明洪湖流域发生干旱和洪涝的可能性增大,水资源可控性和利用率降低。
Using the SWAT （ Soil and Water Assessment Tool） model and data from the global climate modelBCC-CSM 1.1 （Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model 1.1 ） adopted by the IPCC （IntcrgovemmentalPanel on Climate Change） Fifth Assessment Report, the change of water resource in Honghu watershed under threefuture climate change scenarios, including RCP （ Representative Concentration Pathway） 2. 6, RCP 4. 5 and RCP8.5 emission ones, was simulated in this paper. The results indicate that the SWAT model is appropriate to simulatethe change in water resource of Honghu watershed. Under the RCP 2. 6, RCP 4. 5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenari-os,the temperature increments are 1.4 ℃,1.9 ℃ and 2. 4 ℃, and the variation rates in precipitation are-3.20% ,7.60% and 7.90% ,respectively. With the increasing in temperature,the amount of evapotranspirationincreases for all the three emission scenarios. The runoff is influenced significantly by precipitation. For the differ-ent scenarios, the responses of runoff to precipitation are different. Under the RCP 4. 5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, theamounts of surface and groundwater runoffs and flood-peak flow and the times of flood happening in differentkinds of return periods all increase. The increasing amount in surface runoff is more remarkable for the RCP 8.5scenario. Comparatively, the amounts for both of the surface and groundwater runoffs decrease under the RCP2. 6scenario. The variation coefficients of runoff under all these scenarios are bigger than that of the reference period.It means that the possibility of extreme meteorological evens （ such as drought and flood） may increase, and the a-bility to utility and control of water resource in Hongdu watershed may decrease.
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2016年第4期39-47,共9页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201205)
湖北省气象局科技发展基金(2015Z03)共同资助
