摘要
目的:评价4种ABCD评分方法预测短暂性脑缺血发作(TIA)后7 d内继发脑梗死风险的价值。方法:106例TIA患者于入院48 h内采用ABCD、ABCD2、ABCD3、ABCD3-Ⅰ4种评分模型进行评分,根据得分将患者分为低、中及高危组;根据患者TIA后7 d内是否继发脑梗死分为脑梗死组和非脑梗死组,比较2组TIA患者的4种评分;记录4种评分的低、中、高危组中TIA后7 d内继发脑梗死患者例数,采用logistic回归方法分析4种评分与TIA患者7 d内继发脑梗死的相关性;绘制ROC曲线并用曲线下面积(AUC)评价4种评分对TIA患者近期预后预测的真实性和准确度,计算准确度最高评分的界值分值。结果:与非脑梗死组比较,脑梗死组的4种评分方法的得分均显著升高(P<0.01);logistic回归分析结果显示4种评分的OR值高危组>中危组>低危组(P<0.01);4种评分对7 d内脑梗死风险预测的AUC分别为0.61、0.65、0.77、0.89,均大于基准线面积的0.5,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);4种评分方法中ABCD3-Ⅰ评分预测TIA后7 d内脑梗死准确度最高(P<0.05),最佳界值为6分。结论:4种ABCD评分方法均能预测TIA后7 d内继发脑梗死,分值越高7 d内继发脑梗死的危险度越高;其中ABCD3-Ⅰ预测准确度最高。
Objective： To evaluate the value of ABCD score system （ABCD, ABCD2, ABCD3 and ABCD3- I ） in predicting cerebral infarction risk within 7 days after transient isehemic attack （TIA）. Methods： The ABCD, ABCD2, ABCD3 and ABCD3- I scores were adopted to evaluate the 106 TIA patients with 48 h after admission, and according to the scores the TIA patients were divided into low, medium and high risk groups. According to whether the secondary cerebral infarction occurred within 7 days after TIA the patients were divided into cerebral infarction group and non cerebral infarction group, and 4 kinds of scores were compared between the two groups. The cases of secondary cerebral infarction within 7 d after TIA were recorded among 4 kinds of scores in low, medium and high risk groups. The correlation between 4 types of scores and secondary cerebral infarction within 7 d after TIA was analyzed by logistic regression analysis. ROC crave was drawn and the area under the curve （AUC） was used to evaluate the authenticity and accuracy of the evaluation of 4 kinds of scores on the short-term prognosis of TIA patients, and the threshold value of the highest scores was calculated. Re- suits： Compared with the non cerebral infarction group, the scores of the 4 methods of the cerebral in- farction group significantly increased （P 〈 0.01 ）. Logistic regression analysis showed that the OR val- ue of the 4 kinds of score followed the order： high risk group 〉 middle risk group 〉 low risk group （ P 〈 0.01 ）. The AUC of 4 kinds of score in the prediction of the risk of cerebral infarction occurring within 7 days after TIA were 0.61,0.65, 0.77, 0.89, respectively, all of which was greater than the baseline area of 0.5, and the difference was statistically significant （P 〈 0.05 ）. The ABCD3- I score in the 4 scoring methods showed the highest prediction accuracy （P 〈 0.05 ）, and the best value was 6 points in the prediction of the cerebral infarction occurring within 7 d after TIA. Conclusions： The ABCD, ABCD2, ABCD3 and ABCD3- I scores have the validation to predict cerebral infarction risk occurring within 7 d after TIA. The more scores, the more risks of cerebral infarction occurring within 7 d after TIA. Besides, the ABCD3- I score showed the highest prediction accuracy.
出处
《贵阳医学院学报》
CAS
2016年第8期946-950,共5页
Journal of Guiyang Medical College
基金
秦皇岛市科技局计划项目(201502A223)
