摘要
文章基于局部均衡理论,利用SMART模型,模拟中澳FTA下不同阶段的关税削减给中国乳制品带来的经济效应,包括贸易、关税收入以及福利效应。结果表明,中澳FTA建立后,随着关税的不断削减,中国将获得较大的贸易效应,其中贸易创造效应比贸易转移效应明显得多。尽管自贸区的建成会降低中国的关税收入,但经济福利效应将得到进一步的提升。最后,文章对此提出了针对性的政策和建议。
Based on the partial equilibrium theory, and using the SMART model, the paper analyzes the economic effect of China-Australia FTA under different stages of tariff reduction, including trade effect, tariff income effect and welfare effect. The results show that, with the continuous reduction of tariffs under the China-Australia FTA, China will get a larger trade effect. What is more, the trade creation effect is much more obvious than the trade diversion. Although the establishment of free trade area will reduce tariffs on China＇s income, the economic welfare will be improved. Finally, this paper puts forward some corresponding suggestions.
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第9期15-24,共10页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
理论粤军重点项目(WT1401)
教育部哲学社科重大课题攻关项目(14JZD021)
