摘要
建立有效的信用风险评估体系是防范我国地方政府债务风险的基础性工程。鉴于当前外部评级机构独立性较差以及学术界对该领域的探索仍显不足,有必要构建一个符合中国国情,同时兼顾有效性和可操作性的评级体系。为此,笔者在吸收已有研究成果基础上,提出了包括经济发展、财政收支、债务负担、体制环境四大要素的内部评估体系,以及新的要素权重确定方法和评估思路。利用该评估框架,对我国省级政府信用风险状况进行了评估,结果表明广东、江苏、浙江、北京、福建、山东、上海七省份政府信用风险较低,黑龙江、陕西、广西、甘肃、贵州、青海信用风险较高。最后,提出了完善地方政府信用评估体系的若干建议。
Effective credit rating system is essential risk controlling for risk controlling of local government debt. In view of the lack of independence of outer agencies＇ credit ratings and insufficient related research in academia,to develop a local government credit rating system,which takes into account Chinese specific factors and the balance of efficiency and feasibility,is very necessary. As such,based on existing literature＇s results,we developed a new framework for investor. This framework includes four rating factors： economic development,fiscal balance,debt burden and institutional environment,and incorporates a new factor weighting scheme and rating process. We apply our framework to the 30 Chinese provincial governments,and results show that the credit risks of Guangdong,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Beijing,Fujian,Shandong and Shanghai pro vince are relatively low,while the credit risk of Heilongjiang,Shanxi,Guangxi,Gansu,Guizhou and Qinhai are relatively high. Lastly,we offered some suggestions to improve local government credit rating system.
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第9期11-19,共9页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家哲学社会科学基金重点项目"中国特色公共支出理论与政策创新研究"(项目编号:11AZD045)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"地方政府投融资公私合作的监管机制创新研究"(项目编号:13YJA630101)
北京市哲学社会科学基金项目"北京市公共服务公私合作的价格监管机制创新研究"(项目编号:13JGB016)
中财-鹏元地方财政投融资研究所2015年度研究课题
关键词
地方政府
信用风险
评估体系
模糊层次分析法
Local governments
Credit risk
Rating system
Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process
