摘要
2015/16榨季截至6月底中国累计生产食糖870.19万t,销售食糖538.64万t,国内外均已进入减产周期。国际糖市在天气影响下持续炒作减产预期和砍收进度,ICE原糖价格触底反弹;国内糖市则在减产预期逐渐兑现背景下,可观的进口利润刺激了走私糖激增,致使出现了进口减少而消费不济的怪象,加之玉米抛储刺激淀粉糖替代,期货价格宽幅震荡,现货价格则受成本支撑平稳上涨。展望2016/17榨季,国际糖市供给缺口预期收窄,但天气炒作和宏观利多影响仍将推动价格震荡上扬;国内供需变动预计不大,后期或更多受进口成本支撑。未来仍需关注厄尔尼诺的后续影响,包括中国广西受洪水威胁、印度季风降水情况、巴西受厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件切换、泰国干旱气候改善以及中国糖业政策的影响。
In 2015/16 crushing season, the production and sales of China＇s sugar were 8.701 9 million tons and 5.386 4 million tons respectively by the end of June. Sugar markets have entered the decreasing production cycle at home and abroad. Considering the weather conditions, the prospective decline of sugar production and progress of sugarcane harvesting were continuously hyped up in the international market, thus ICE raw sugar price rebounded after hitting the rock bottom, while in the domestic market, as sugar production was gradually declining, considerable profits from imports spurred surge in sugar smuggling, which led to a reduction in both imports and consumption. In addition, due to the fact that the launched of state reserve maize encouraged substitution of starch sugar for sugar, futures price fluctuated violently, whereas the spot price supported by the production cost increased steadily. Looking forward to 2016/17 crushing season, the supply gap in the international sugar market was expected to become narrow. However, the influence of weather conditions and favorable macroeconomic environment will still drive sugar price going upward. Domestic supply and demand which may be mostly supported by import cost prices later was expected to have little change. In the future, we still need to focus attention on the aftermath of the centennial strongest El Nino, including Guangxi ZhuangAutonomous Region of China threatened by floods, the monsoon rainfall situation in India, the alternative influence of El Nino and La Nina in Brazil, the better changes of arid climate in Thailand, as well as the impact of China＇s sugar industry policy.
出处
《农业展望》
2016年第8期8-14,23,共8页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
农业部
财政部现代农业(甘蔗)产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-20-11B)
教育部人文社科青年基金项目(13YJC790097)
国际农业研究体系"糖料市场
贸易及产业政策研究"
关键词
食糖价格
产量
进出口
展望
供给不足
sugar price
output
import and export
outlook
supply shortage
