摘要
为降低权重确定的不确定性,将循证医学领域广泛使用的Meta分析方法用于定量预测青海杂多地区的矿产资源。在分析该地区成矿规律与控矿因素的基础上,选择地层、构造、岩浆岩、地磁异常、化探异常和遥感蚀变异常这6个要素的11个预测因子,构建成矿定量预测的指标体系。以区内的50多个已知矿点为样本,采用规则网格单元统计上述11个预测因子与已知矿点的空间位置套合情况,从而将地质资料中的非定量数据转化为Meta分析所要求的定量信息,并通过Meta分析计算得到不同预测因子的优势比。通过分析各个预测因子之间优势比之差,结合模糊综合层次分析法(FAHP)求得各个因子在成矿预测中的权重。基于该权重,利用模糊综合评判(FCA)建立青海杂多地区铅锌多金属矿的成矿定量预测模型,并划分出3类不同级别的成矿有利区。以此为基础,划定出5个成矿远景区,圈定A类勘查靶区5处,B类勘查靶区10处,C类勘查靶区20处。研究结果表明:基于Meta分析的定量预测法比常规的综合化探异常法的找矿有效性提高36%。
To reduce the uncertainty of weight determination, meta-analysis of evidence-based medicine was used in the quantitative prediction of mineral resource in Zaduo, Qinghai Province. Based on the analysis of the regional metallogenic regularity and ore controlling factors, 11 predictors of six elements such as formation, struc^u＇e, magmatite, geomagnetic anomaly, geochemical anomaly and remote sensing alteration were selected to construct the index system of quantitative prediction. Based on grid unit, more than 50 deposits and ore occurrences in study area were used as test samples to count the superposition of the spatial position between 11 predictors and deposits. According to the statistic results, the non-quantitative geological data could be converted to quantitative information required by meta-analysis and the odds ratio （Ro） of 11 predictors could also be derived. Through the analysis of the difference of odds ratio value of 11 predictors, their weights for metallogenic prediction could be calculated based on fuzzy analytical hierarchy process（FAHP）. Combined the above weights with fuzzy comprehensive appraisement （FCA）, a quantitative prediction model of Pb-Zn deposits in Zaduo, Qinghai Province, could be constructed. Three classes＇ favorable areas of ore-forming were zoned based on the ore-forming favorability derived from FCA model. 5 mineralization prospecting zones have been schemed, which includes 5 of A-grade exploring targets, 10 of B-grade exploring targets and 20 of C-grade exploring targets. The results show that the prospecting effectiveness of this quantitative prediction model based on meta-analysis is higher 36% than that of comprehensive geochemical anomaly model.
出处
《中南大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第9期3093-3100,共8页
Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41403035)
中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2012T50832)
大陆构造与动力学国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目(K201504)~~
关键词
META分析
隐伏矿体
模糊综合评判
定量预测
meta-analysis
concealed orebody
fuzzy comprehensive appraisement
quantitative prediction
