摘要
利用1954—2013年连州市雷暴观测资料,采用Mann-Kendall检验、回归分析、小波分析等,研究了连州市雷暴的气候变化特征。结果表明:1954—2013年连州市年平均雷暴日数为69.2 d,雷暴日数以每年0.44 d的速率减少,减少趋势非常显著;用M-K法检测出雷暴日数在1995年发生突变。全年均有雷暴发生,月分布呈单峰型的特征,主要集中在夏季,冬季出现雷暴的几率很小。初雷主要出现在2月份,终雷主要出现在9月份,雷暴持续期相对较长,年际差异较大,由小波分析得出雷暴日数存在准2、准6和准10年的周期震荡。
With the observational data of thunderstorms of Lianzhou from 1954 to 2013 and the methods of Mann-Kendall test, regression analysis and wavelet analysis, we studied the characteristics of climatological variation of thunderstorms in the city. The result is shown as follows. The average number of thunderstorm days in the years is 69.2 d and it decreases significantly at a rate of 0.44 d per year. An abrupt change took place in 1995, as shown in Mann-Kendall tests. In Lianzhou, thunderstorms can occur all the year round, with the monthly distribution in a unimodal pattern, but mostly in summer while scarcely in winter. The annually first thunderstorm is mainly in February and the last thunderstorm in September, which makes a relatively long period of occurrence. As shown in wavelet analysis, the number of thunderstorm days fluctuates at periods of quasi-2, quasi-6 and quasi-10 years.
作者
阮楚雯
邓福兴
李少远
RUAN Chu-wen DENG Fu-xing LI Shao-yuan(Meteorological Bureau of Lianzhou City, Lianzhou 513400)
出处
《广东气象》
2016年第5期29-32,共4页
Guangdong Meteorology
关键词
气候特征
雷电防御
雷暴日数
小波分析
M—K检验
连州市
number of thunderstorm days
climatological characteristics
wavelet analysis
Mann-Ken-dall test
Lianzhou City
