摘要
[目的]探讨大气可吸入颗粒物(PM_(10))对心血管疾病急救人次的短期影响及其季节性差异。[方法]收集2011—2014年宁波市急救中心的逐日心血管疾病急救数据,采用分布滞后非线性模型时间序列分析方法,在控制气象因素、长期趋势、星期几效应等混杂因素后,定量分析冷季(11月—次年4月)和暖季(5—10月)时PM_(10)日均浓度与心血管病日急救人次的关系,并比较了PM_(10)对不同人群组影响的差异。[结果]研究期间共收集到心血管疾病急救病例7 434例,其中冷季4 123例,暖季3 311例。暖季时,大气PM_(10)每升高10μg/m^3,心血管疾病急救人次增加2.00%(95%CI:0.59%~3.42%),且未见滞后效应存在;全年和冷季时未见PM_(10)对心血管疾病急救人次的影响有统计学意义。暖季时,PM_(10)每升高10μg/m^3可造成男性和≥65岁年龄组人群心血管疾病急救人次分别增加2.41%(95%CI:0.48%~4.37%)和1.86%(95%CI:0.07%~3.69%);未见PM_(10)对女性和<65岁年龄组人群的影响有统计学意义。[结论]暖季时大气PM_(10)浓度升高可造成心血管疾病急救人次增加,男性和老年人是敏感人群。
[ Objective ] To assess the short-term effect of particulate matters with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10μm （PM10） on emergency ambulance dispatches for cardiovascular diseases （CVDs） and seasonal variations. [ Methods ] The data of dally emergency ambulance dispatches from 2011 to 2014 were collected from Ningbo Emergency Medical Center. A time-series study using a distributed lag non-linear model was conducted to evaluate the relationship between PM10 and daily emergency ambulance dispatches for CVDs in cold season （from November to April） and warm season （from May to October） after controlling meteorological factors, long-term trend, and day of the week. We also examined the association stratified by sex and age. [ Results ] During the study period, a total of 7434 cases of CVDs were collected, including 4123 cases in cold season and 3 311 cases in warm season. In warm season, a 10μg/m^3 increase of PM10 was associated with 2.00% （95%CI： 0.59%-3.42%） increase in emergency ambulance dispatches for CVDs without lag effect identified. No effect was found in full year and cold season. In warm season, the excess risks associated with a 10μg/m^3 increase of PM10 in the males and the I〉65 years old age group were 2.41% （95%CI： 0.48%-4.37%） and 1.86% （95%CI： 0.07%-3.69%） respectively. No statistically significant differences were found in the females and those less than 65 years old. [ Conclusion ] These findings suggest that the increase of PM10 are positively associated with the increase of emergency ambulance dispatches for CVDs in warm season; male and the senior may be more sensitive than others.
出处
《环境与职业医学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第10期965-969,共5页
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine
基金
浙江省医药卫生科技计划项目(编号:2014KYA202)
宁波市科技项目(编号:2014C50027)
宁波市科技局创新团队项目(编号:2012B82018-10)
宁波市科技惠民项目(编号:2015C50056)
关键词
大气污染
PM10
超额危险度
心血管疾病
急救
季节性
air pollution
PM10
excess risk
cardiovascular disease
emergency ambulance dispatch
seasonality
