摘要
利用全局主成分分析法和改进Moore指数,分别对新型城镇化水平和产业结构变迁指数进行测算,并在经济增长的空间相关性分析基础上,构建空间自回归模型、空间效应分解模型和面板门槛模型,实证检验了新型城镇化发展与产业结构变迁的经济增长效应。研究显示,新型城镇化通过发挥其"选择效应"优化产业结构、提升企业生产率,有效促进了经济增长;中国经济发展的"结构红利"因产业结构变迁而减弱,导致中国经济发展出现"结构性减速"现象,但产业结构变迁的经济增长效应仍存在;实现产城联动,发挥新型城镇化与产业结构变迁的"协同效应",对于缓解经济发展过程中的"结构性减速"问题,促进中国经济增长具有积极作用;新型城镇化发展与产业结构变迁的经济增长效应因产城关系的阶段性不匹配而存在"门槛效应"。
The paper calculates the new urbanization level by global principal component analysis, and assesses industrial structure change by improved Moore index. Based on spatial correlation analysis of economic growth, the spatial autoregressive model, spatial effects decomposition model and the panel threshold model are constructed. Then this paper tests the economic growth effects produced by new urbanization and industrial structure change. Empirical results indicate that new urbanization through the ＂selective effects＂ to optimize the industrial structure, to enhance the productivity of enterprises, and to achieve its economic growth effects. ＂Structure bonus＂ of China＇s economic development is disappearing, due to industrial structure change. China＇s economic development has entered into ＂structural slowdown＂ period. But the economic growth effects of the industrial structure change still exists. Realizing the linkage between industrial structure change and new urbanization has great significance to alleviate ＂structural slowdown＂ phenomenon and promote China＇s economic growth. The economic growth from new urbanization and industrial structure change has the ＂threshold effects＂, due to the mismatch of new urbanization and industrial structure change.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第11期23-40,共18页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(15YJA630106)的资助
关键词
新型城镇化
产业结构变迁
经济增长
空间计量模型
门槛模型
New Urbanization
Industrial Structure Change
Economic Growth
Spatial Econometric Model
Threshold Model
