摘要
根据小麦、玉米和稻谷2003年1月至2015年12月国内外月度价格数据,利用VEC-DCC-GARCH模型研究了中国粮食价格支持政策对国内外粮食价格波动关系的影响。结果表明:中国粮食价格支持政策的实施,在一定程度上削弱了国际粮价对国内粮价的均值溢出效应;政策实施前,国际粮价对国内粮价具有波动溢出效应,而实施后不具有波动溢出效应,并且国内外粮食价格相关关系的持久性减弱。由此可见,中国实施粮食价格支持政策,有助于减少国际粮食市场对国内市场的冲击,但同时也扭曲了国内粮食市场,提出国家在确保国家粮食安全的基础上,充分发挥市场在价格发现和配置资源中的作用,尽快完善和改革我国粮食价格形成机制。
Based on the monthly international and domestic price data of wheat,maize and rice from January 2003 to December 2015,this paper uses VEC-DCC-GARCH model to analyze the mean value and volatility spillover effect between international and domestic grain prices before and after the implement of grain price support policy.The result shows that the mean value spillover effect between international and domestic grain prices is weakened by the implementation of grain price support policy.There is a volatility spillover effect between international and domestic grain prices before the implementation of grain price support policy,which is disappeared after the implementation of grain price support policy.Meanwhile,the persistence of the relationship between international and domestic grain price is weakened.This shows that the implementation of grain price support policy decreases the shock to domestic grain market from the international market to some extent,.However,it makes some distortions to the domestic grain market at the same time.Therefore,this paper proposes that we should give full play to the market in price discovery and the role of allocating resources on the basis of ensuring food security,and reform and improve grain price formation mechanism as soon as possible in China.
出处
《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2016年第6期41-47,143,共7页
Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"供求紧平衡背景下我国主粮价格的形成及系统仿真"(71473253)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目"劳动力老龄化背景下外源性粮食生产技术的内生化机理研究"(71303141)
国家社会科学基金一般项目"农业土地经营制度创新评估与改革取向研究"(13BJY095)
中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2016-06)
