摘要
基于自然灾害风险理论,利用云南省129个县(市、区)的气象、社会经济和地理信息数据,从干旱灾害致灾因子危险性、成灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力4个方面选取15个评价指标构建了干旱灾害风险评估模型,对干旱灾害风险进行了评估。研究结果表明:云南省低、次低、中、次高、高等级干旱灾害风险的面积分别占全省总面积的13.4%,29.8%,28.2%,19.6%和9.1%。干旱灾害风险空间分布比较复杂,大致沿哈巴雪山—点苍山—哀牢山一带,西部地区干旱灾害风险总体较低,东部地区干旱灾害风险相对较高。南盘江流域、红河流域、金沙江下游地区为典型的干旱灾害高风险区;三江并流区及澜沧江下游地区为干旱灾害低风险区。利用近10 a的旱灾受灾面积和总经济损失对评估结果进行了验证,表明构建的评估模型总体能反映云南省干旱灾害风险水平,可为干旱灾害风险管理提供依据。
Based on the risk theory of natural disaster, a risk assessment model of drought disaster was developed. 15 indicators were selected from the four sub-systems of risk system, including the hazard of the disaster-causing factors, sensitivity of disaster-formative environments, vulnerability of disaster-bearing body and the capabilities of disaster prevention and mitigation. The model was then used to assess the drought disaster risk of Yunnan Province using the meteorological, socioeconomic and GIS data of 129 counties （cities and prefectures）. The results show that the area of low, sub-low, medium, sub-high and high drought disaster risk account for 13.4%, 29.8%, 28. 2%, 19.6% and 9.1% of Yunnan Province. The spatial distribution of drought disaster risk presents the charac- teristics of complexity. In general, Yunnan Province could be divided coarsely into two parts, along the zone of Ha- ba Snow Mountain-Diancang Mountain-Ailao Mountain, the most areas of eastern part show the high risk of drought disaster while the majority of regions in western parts present low risk of drought disaster. The regions with high drought disaster risk were mainly in the Nanpan River basin, Honghe River basin and the lower Jinsha River basin. The regions with low drought disaster risk were found mainly in the Three Parallel Rivers Region and the lower Lan- cang River basin. The assessment result was verified through comparing with affected area and total economic loss of drought disaster in recent 10 years, which indicated that the model could reflect the situation of drought disaster risk over Yunnan Province and provide a basis for drought disaster risk management.
作者
何娇楠
李运刚
李雪
黄江成
HE Jiaonan LI Yungang LI Xue HUANG Jiangcheng(Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco - security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China)
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第5期37-45,共9页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41301099
U1202232)
云南省应用基础研究计划项目(2012FD007)~~
关键词
干旱灾害
风险评估
云南省
drought disaster
risk assessment
Yunnan Province
