“萨德入韩”与东北亚的“安全困境”:基于新现实主义的分析被引量：13

Deployment of THAAD in the Republic of Korea and Northeast Asia Security Dilemma Analysis Based on Neorealism

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摘要当前东北亚地区扑朔迷离的形势可视为朝鲜核试验、萨德入韩以及美国的"亚洲回归"政策共同、交互作用的结果。美国的"亚洲回归"以及转而实施"亚太再平衡"政策其旨在应对中国的崛起,对中国进行"战略封锁"。在此背景下,朝鲜核试验(第四、五次)、朝鲜频繁的导弹试射、韩国部署萨德系统等破坏了东北亚既存的和平共处和战略均衡局面,大有使韩美日和朝中俄回归到"冷战式对立"之势,东北亚可能再现"新冷战"格局,地区"安全困境"也将日趋严峻。本文认为,美国积极推进"萨德入韩"的根本动因在于:一方面向日益紧密的中韩关系打入楔子,另一方面要实现对中俄的战略遏制。韩国同意部署萨德本身,一方面是没有充分认识到它的负面影响,另一方面则是明显的战略误判。"萨德入韩"使得半岛局势急转直下的同时,也使得半岛成为东北亚各国回归传统战略博弈的主战场。中国之所以对韩国同意部署萨德的行为产生怀疑并敏感的反应,原因在于萨德系统不能有效应对朝鲜的攻击,而是为了弥补美国应对中国的导弹防御系统(MD)的缺口。从这种意义上说,部署萨德的负面影响将日益凸显:一是它并不能减少朝鲜的安全威胁,反而有可能刺激朝鲜而使得韩国更加不安全;二是中韩关系将因此严重受损,两国政治、经济、人文交流与合作必将受到冲击;三是东北亚地区将可能再次回归到两极对立状态,朝鲜半岛的安全困境将日益深化。 The current complicated and confusing situation in Northeast Asia could be viewed as the joint result of the DPRK nuclear experiment,ROK deployment of THAAD, and the US Policy of 'Pivot to Asia'. The aims of the 'Pivot to Asia' policy and the following Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy is to strategically block China's rising. Under this background, the current peaceful stability and strategic balance in Northeast Asia was destroyed by the fourth and fifth DPRK nuclear experiment and ROK deployment of THAAD. There might be a 'New Cold War' which will aggravate the Northeast Asia security dilemma. According to this paper, the ultimate reason of the US support to the deployment of THAAD in ROK is to cast in a bone between China and ROK and strategically contain China and Russia. The ROK underestimation of the potential negative effects of the THAAD deployment leads to a severe strategic mistake. THAAD deployment in ROK instantly aggravates the security situation of the Korean Peninsula, making the Peninsula as the main battlefield of strategic game among Northeast Asian countries. The reason of China's skepticism and sensitivity is the following fact:The ROK deployment of THAAD is ineffective in countering the strike from DPRK and the true intention is to strengthen the US anti-missile capabilities against China. In this sense, negative effects of the THAAD deployment are quite clear:First, it will provoke DPRK to take more aggressive actions against ROK and aggravate regional security situation; Second, the Sino-ROK relations will be severely damaged and the political, economic, and humanity communication and cooperation between the two countries will be negatively affected; Third, Northeast Asia might return to ROK-DPRK antagonism and the regional security dilemma will be left unresolved.

作者李相万

机构地区韩国庆南大学远东问题研究所

出处《东北亚论坛》 CSSCI 北大核心 2016年第6期3-15,125,共13页 Northeast Asia Forum

关键词萨德入韩安全困境半岛无核化半岛和平体制 Deployment of THAAD in the Republic of Korea Security Dilemma Korean Peninsula Denuclearization Peaceful Arrangement of the Korean Peninsula

分类号 D815 [政治法律—国际关系]

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参考文献12

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