摘要
近年来,江苏省能源消费持续增长且以煤为主的能源结构尚未改变,由此引起碳排放量也在逐年增加.主要研究碳排放系数、碳排放的影响因素以及不同能源结构下的碳排放预测.首先对碳排放系数进行计算,然后基于LMDI模型对影响江苏省碳排放的因素进行分析,最后运用1ogistics模型对不同能源结构下的碳排放进行预测.结果发现能源消费过度依赖煤炭是导致碳排放增加的主要因素,天然气每替代煤炭2%或新能源每替代煤炭1%,2030年江苏省碳排放峰值将下降1%.
In recent years, sustained growth of energy consumption and give priority to with coal energy structure have not changed in Jiangsu province, the resulting carbon emissions are also increasing year by year. This paper mainly study carbon emission coefficient, the influence factors of carbon emissions and carbon emissions under different energy structure prediction. First of all, calculating the carbon emissions coefficient, and then based on LMDI model to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Jiangsu province, the Logistics model is used to predict carbon emissions under different energy structure. The results show that coal is the main factor to the rise in carbon emissions, natural gas every alternative coal 2% or new energy replacing coal 1%, peak will fall 1% of carbon emissions in Jiangsu province in 2030.
作者
陈盈
李函昱
田立新
CHEN Ying LI Han-yu TIAN Li-xin(Jiangsu University, Energy Development and Environmental Protection Strategy Research Center, Zhenjiang 212000, China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2016年第21期158-170,共13页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
