摘要
行业的低碳发展是工业低碳转型的目标,以工业部门为对象,应用脱钩效应和面板模型分析行业能源消费的碳足迹,对深入研究地区工业低碳转型具有重要现实意义。以山东省为例,分析工业能源消费碳足迹的1997年至2012年样本数据,将工业部门分为高耗能行业、其他行业、战略性新兴行业,展开研究,结果表明:(1)自20世纪90年末代开始节能降耗,山东省工业呈现强负"脱钩"、强"脱钩"、扩张负"脱钩"和弱"脱钩"交替发生,表明对工业节能降耗调控波动大,不利于工业部门均衡有序发展;(2)高耗能行业是能耗大户,高耗能行业与工业在绝大部分年份的脱钩状态相同,表明高耗能行业主导工业总体脱钩状态,是节能减排的主要对象;随着节能降耗的深入,相关政策趋紧,碳足迹边际成本不断升高,应关注锁定效应大的火电行业和碳足迹边际成本高的化学工业;(3)其他行业包含行业多,但总体能耗水平不高,随着节能减排的开展和行业持续发展,能耗将增加,必将承担更多的节能减排,需要关注锁定效应强的金属制品业发展,推动碳生产力系数高的食品饮料业发展;(4)战略性新兴行业碳锁定效应最弱、碳足迹边际成本最低和碳生产力系数最高,是国家大力倡导发展的行业;由于基数低,对工业碳排放态势影响极其有限,应大力推动碳锁定效应弱的新一代信息技术产业、碳足迹边际成本低的新材料行业、碳生产力系数高的节能环保业和新材料行业。
Decreasing atmospheric carbon is the goal of low carbon industries. Using the industrial sector industry as an example, this study applies a decoupling model and analyzes the industrial carbon footprint during energy consumption. In this study, we analyzed the carbon footprint in Shandong province from 1997 to 2012. Separating the industrial sector into energy intensive and emerging industries, the results demonstrate that： （1） the government began to implement energy conservation and emission reductions since the last century in late ninety＇s. The strong negative ＂decoupling＂, the strong ＂decoupling＂, the expansion negative ＂decoupling＂ and weak ＂decoupling＂ of industries occur alternately in Shandong province. This suggests that high volatility for regulation and the control of industrial saving energy and reduces consumption, which is harmful to industrial development. （2） The energy consumption in industries is vast. The decoupling of energy intensive industries and industry is the same in most periods. It is the main driving force of industrial energy consumption, and it necessitates implementation of government policies. With increase in saving energy and reducing consumption, the marginal cost of carbon footprint is rising, and energy conservation and emission reduction should focus on thermal power industry with large locking effect and chemical industry with high carbon footprint marginal cost. （3） Energy consumption is not as high in other industries. With the development of the energy conservation and emission reduction and sustainable development of industry, the energy consumption will increase, and other industries will certainly take more obligation. The government should pay attention to industries making metal products and promote the food and beverage industry. （4） Strategic and emerging industries have the weakest carbon lock-in effect, the smallest cost of carbon production, and the highest production of carbon, which the government advocates. Because of the low base, emerging industries have limited effects on industrial carbon emissions. The government should promote a new generation of technologies with a smaller carbon footprint that will help conserve energy and protect the environment.
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第20期6646-6655,共10页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
2014年山东能源经济协同创新中心重大资助项目(2014SDXT001)
国家社会科学基金资助项目(13BGL108)
山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2011GL016)
国家科技支撑计划课题(2013BAK15B04)
关键词
碳足迹
脱钩效应
面板协整
工业
山东省
carbon footprint
decoupling effect
panel cointegration
industry
Shandong Province
