摘要
通过对中央台精细化城镇预报(CMA)2013—2015年在贵州省的温度要素120 h准确率总评分进行检验分析,结果表明:CMA准确率逐年上升,在贵州省,最高温度预报是难点;6—9月是CMA准确率的高峰时段,在静止锋影响时段和温度转折期的预报效果不理想;最高温度准确率按市(州)自西向东呈单峰型变化,在西北部和东南部最差,最低温度预报在省的西部3市州最好;在全省县站中,最高温度在西南部和东北部预报较好,最低温度在北部和西部预报较好,遵义大部分站点的城镇最低温度预报准确率低于CMA。
The accuracy of temperature elements of China Meteorological Administration ＇s accurate urban weather forecast（ CMA） for Guizhou was verified and analyzed using a sample of elements in 120 hours from 2013 to 2015. The results show that： the accuracy is increasing year by year; it is difficult to forecast the maximum temperature in Guizhou; CMA performs well from June to September,while not well during the periods where either stationary front affects weather or temperature arrives at a turning point; maximum temperature accuracy for every city in Guizhou shows a single peak from west to east,and the minimums of the accuracy appears in both the northwest part and the southeast part of Guizhou,while minimum temperature accuracy in three cities in the west part is the highest; maximum temperature of urban weather forecasted by county station performs well in both the southwest part and the northeast part,while the minimum temperature forecasted by county station performs well in both the north part and the west part,and especially the minimum temperatures forecasted by most of the county stations in Zhunyi city are less accurate than CMA.
出处
《贵州气象》
2016年第5期20-24,共5页
Journal of Guizhou Meteorology
关键词
城镇预报
温度要素
准确率
检验
urban weather forecast
temperature element
accuracy
verification
