摘要
目的对2010～2014年海口市台风月份与无台风月份感染性腹泻发病情况进行比较，判断极端天气事件台风对感染性腹泻流行的影响。通过对台风“威马逊”、“海鸥”的两次现场调查资料分析，进一步阐明海口市感染性腹泻在台风月份的流行情况。筛选出台风环境下导致感染性腹泻发病、流行的危险因素，为感染性腹泻的防控提供基础资料。方法收集、整理2010～2014年海南省海口市历年平均常住人口、台风、其他气象因素、感染性腹泻病例以及现场流调等数据资料。根据不同资料的性质，采用配对￡检验、分层卡方检验，分析台风对海口市感染性腹泻流行的影响；采用线性回归和Logistic回归，分析台风与感染性腹泻发病之间的关系。结果2010～2014年海口市台风月份感染性腹泻病发病率显著高于无台风月份（P〈0．01）。由最高温度、相对湿度与感染性腹泻发病数建立的线性回归模型差异有统计学意义（P〈0．05）。当最高气温界于28．2～33．6℃，相对湿度界于74％～84％时：当相对湿度一定，最高气温每升高1℃，感染性腹泻发病数相应地增加约：5人；在最高温度一定时，相对湿度每增加1℃，感染性腹泻发病数相应地增加约：353人。台风“威马逊”和“海鸥”对调查地区感染性腹泻流行的影响具有统计学意义（P〈0.01）。台风过后，感染性腹泻在人群中流行的概率较高（OR=3．750，95％CI：1．266～11．102）。居民患感染性腹泻与否和经历台风（OR=2．783，95％CI：1．135～6．823）、病媒生物增多（OR=2．403，95％CI：1．052～5．486）、饭前便后不洗手（OR=24．151，95％CI：5．653～103．182）和吃隔夜饭菜（OR=40．591，95％CI：5．483300．496）等4个危险因素有关。结论海口市感染性腹泻在台风月份的发病率较无台风月份升高。感染性腹泻发病数的增多与台风过后气象因素（最高气温、相对湿度）的上升有关，最高气温和相对湿度的变化与感染性腹泻发病数呈线性关系。台风对感染性腹泻在人群中是否流行与居民居住地（城市或乡村）无相关关系。台风过后，决定感染性腹泻发病的危险因素包括：高温、高湿天气、居住环境中病媒生物增多、饭前便后不洗手和吃隔夜饭菜。
Objective To explore the impact of typhoons on the prevalence of infective diarrhea in Haikou city from 2010 to 2014, further clarify the prevalence of infective diarrhea in Haikou city during typhoon months, find out the risk factors resulting in the occurrence and prevalence of infective diarrhea during typhoon months. Methods The data of infective diarrhea cases,the permanent residents, typhoons, annual average meteorological and on-the-spot epidemiological data in Haikou city were collected. Pairedt test and classified Chi-square test were adopted to analyze the significance of typhoons on the prevalence of infective diarrhea in Haikou city. The correlation between the occurrence of typhoons and the prevalence of infective diarrheas was further analyzed using linear and logistic regression analysis. Results The incidence of infective diarrhea in typhoon months was higher than that in nowtyphoon months in Haikou city from 2010 to 2014（ P 〈0. 01）. The meteorological factors of maximal temperature and relative humidity were statistically and significantly correla ted with the incidence of infective diarrhea in simulated liner regression model（ P 〈0.05）. It was found that within certain range of threshold values of maximal temperature and relative humidity （maximal temperature in the range of 28.2-33.6 ℃ and relative humidity in the range of 74%-84%）,the number of infective diarrhea cases would increase about 5 cases when the maximal temperature increased 1 ℃ on condition that the relative humidity remained stable,and the quantity of infective diarrhea cases would increase about 353 cases when the relative humidity increased 1% on condition that the maximal temperature remained stable. The impact of typhoon Rammasun and typhoon Kalmaegi on the incidence of diarrhea in surveyed areas of Haikou city was statistically significant （ P〈0.01）. The prevalence of infective diarrhea after typhoons was correlate to the experience of typhoon, the increase of disease vectors,do not wash hands before eating and after using the bathroom, and eat overnight food with relative risk 2.783 （95G CI ： 1.135-6.823）, 2.403 （95% CI ： 1.052-5.486）, 24.151 （95% CI ：5.653-103.182） and 40.591 （95% CI ：5. 483-300. 496）. Conclusion The prevalence of infective diarrhea during typhoon months is higher than that in non-typhoon months in Haikou city. The increase of quantity of infective diarrhea cases is associated with the changes of maximal temperature and relative humidity and the variations of maximal temperature and relative humidity due to typhoons showed liner correlation with the fluctuation of infective diarrhea cases. There is no correlation between the impact of typhoon on the prevalence of infective diarrhea and the dwelling environment such as city or village of the residents. The experience of typhoon, the increase of vectors, not washing hands before eating and after using the bathroom, and eating overnight food are the risk factors associated with the infection of infective diarrhea after typhoons.
出处
《预防医学论坛》
2016年第9期641-644,648,共5页
Preventive Medicine Tribune
基金
国家重大科学研究计划(973计划)项目编号:2012CB955504
关键词
气候
厄尔尼诺
自然灾害
台风
感染性腹泻
Climate
El Nino
Natural disaster
Typhoon
Infeetive diarrhea
