摘要
为全面评估雾霾天气对经济社会生态的安全状况,基于自然灾害系统理论构造了雾霾危害综合风险评估体系并结合层次分析法和熵权法计算了各子因素权重,采用物元可拓模型计算长三角三省市雾霾危害综合风险的关联系数、判定等级.计算结果表明:上海市综合风险等级判定为严重,江苏省综合风险等级处于轻度,浙江省综合风险等级处于微度,同时使用综合指数法的计算结果验证了结果可信.最后根据三省市各项风险因素的权重大小、风险等级和改变难度综合评价各项风险因素,确定了长三角各省市降低雾霾危害风险水平的关键因素.
The aim of the paper is to make a comprehensive risk evaluation of potential hazard from Haze weather. We constructed the evaluation system of indicating factors which consists of 21 indicators in 3 categories on the basis of disaster systemic theory. We combined the Analytical Hierarchy Process （AHP） and the entropy approach to determine these indicators＇ weight. With the indicator system and its weights in hand, we calculate the correlation coefficient of comprehensive risk of haze pollution of three provinces in in Yangtze River delta district. The results indicated that the security risk level of Shanghai Jiangsu and Zhejiang is Ⅳ, Ⅱ and Ⅰ respectively. The evaluation result based on matter--element extension model was accord with the result of traditional comprehensive index evaluation method, which proved that this model was reliable. In addition, we classified evaluation index in terms of weight, security level and improve difficulty, and find key index to reduce the risk level quickly
出处
《数学理论与应用》
2016年第3期101-111,共11页
Mathematical Theory and Applications
基金
国家自然科学基金项目71271138)
上海市哲学社会科学规划项目(2014BGL024)
上海市一流学科资助项目(S1201YLXK)
沪江基金资助项目(A14006)资助
关键词
雾霾
综合风险评估
物元可拓模型
关联系数
Haze
Comprehensive risk assessment
Matter--element extension model
Relation coefficient
