摘要
为了研究气候变化背景下长治市极端降水的变化趋势,掌握其变化规律,使用1961—2015年长治市所属11个县站的逐日降水和气温资料,对降水极端气候事件的分析侧重于大雨、暴雨、大暴雨、大雪和暴雪的变化特征,研究不同级别频数的年际变化规律。利用降水要素倾向率计算、Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendal突变分析等,对长治气候变暖前后各级别降水频数进行分析。结果表明：（1）在长治市年平均气温增高背景下,各量级的降水日变化不尽相同,其中以小雪日的增加和小雨日的减少最为显著;有降水日（日降水量≥0.1 mm）呈减少趋势,同时大暴雨、大雪和暴雪日数呈不同程度的增加;（2）暴雨、大暴雨和大雪、暴雪都有25~30年的低频振荡周期,在高频部分有准2年振荡周期,在整个时间序列中各级别降水还具有4年、6年和8年左右的周期;（3）暴雨极端降水在1962年发生突变;大雪日数突变年份在1990年前后,2006年之后大雪日数增加趋势更加显著。其他级别降水日数无明显突变。
The paper aims to clarify the variation trend of extreme precipitation in Changzhi under thebackground of climate change, and grasp its change law. The authors used daily precipitation and temperaturedata of 11 county stations in Changzhi from 1961 to 2015, and focused on the extreme precipitation climateevents, mainly the variation features of heavy rain, torrential rain, heavy torrential rain, heavy snow andblizzard, as well as the inter-annual variation of different frequency grades, and used the precipitation trendrate calculation, Morlet wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendal mutation analysis and so on to analyze precipitationfrequency at all levels of Changzhi before and after the climate warming. The results showed that：（1） under thebackground of annual average temperature increase, daily variation of precipitation at all levels were not thesame; the increase of light snow day and the reduce of rain day were the most significant; the precipitation day（daily precipitation ≥0.1 mm） showed a decrease trend, at the same time, torrential rain, snow and blizzarddays showed varying degrees of increase;（2） torrential rain, heavy torrential rain and heavy snow, blizzard hadthe oscillation period with 25 to 30 years, in the high frequency part, there was a oscillation period with 2years, at all levels in the time series of precipitation, there were also 4 years, 6 years and 8 years cyclerespectively;（3） extreme precipitation had a mutation in 1962; the mutation of heavy snow days happenedaround 1990, after 2006 the heavy snow days increased even more significantly. Other grades of precipitation days had no obvious mutation.
出处
《中国农学通报》
2016年第32期137-143,共7页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
关键词
气候变暖
极端降水
发生频率
变化趋势
climate warming
extreme precipitation
frequency of occurrence
variation trend
