摘要
本文以2004-2012年民营企业为研究对象,考察了市委书记更替带来的政策不确定性对银行信贷合约结构的影响。研究发现,面临政策不确定性时,民营企业获得银行信用借款的比例显著降低,担保借款比例显著提高,体现了政治权力转移的不确定性风险假说;随着政府质量、法律保护的提高和完善,政治权力转移带来的不确定性风险降低,对银行信贷合约的影响减弱。进一步研究发现,政策不确定性与银行信贷的负相关关系在官员异地调任和外地籍贯、以及无政治关联和管制行业中更为显著。政策不确定性影响银行信贷合约的机制是提高了企业债务违约风险,而高质量的会计信息能够缓解政治权力转移带来的不确定性风险,降低银行信贷合约违约概率。本文研究结论为理解外部宏观政治环境对微观企业行为的影响提供了新视角,有助于深化理解政商关系的互动机制;同时,也有助于从制度层面理解会计信息的商业决策机制。
Using the Chinese private firms from 2004 to 2012 as a sample, the paper examines the influence of political power transfer caused by official turnover on credit contract of hanks. We find that when there is a transfer of political power, the smaller the proportion of the fiduciary loan obtained from the bank, the greater the proportion of the guaranteed loan, reflecting the uncertainty risk hypothesis of political power transfer. With the improvement of the government quality and legal protection, political uncertainty caused by the political power transfer is reduced and the impact of risk on bank credit contract is weakened. Furthermore, the negative correlation between the political power transfer and bank credit is more significant in officials＇ source external and non-native place, non-political connection firms and regulated industries. Moreover, the mechanism in which the political power transfer affecting firm＇ s unsecured loan is realized by the increase in the risk of breaking a contract of debt. However, the better the firms＇ accounting information quality, the lower probability of firm＇ s breaking a contract in debt. The paper provides a new perspective that can help us to understand the macro political environment on micro enterprises behavior and the relationship between government and business interaction mechanism ; also help us to understand the role of accounting information in business decisions from the institutional environment.
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第11期121-136,共16页
China Soft Science
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71272041)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(11YJA630085)
对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(CXTD5-02)
关键词
政治权力转移
银行信贷
不确定性风险
会计信息质量
官员更替
political power transfer
bank credit
uncertainty risk
accounting information quality
official turnover
