摘要
文章选用2006年3月到2015年12月的月度数据,运用VAR模型,通过Granger因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解方法发现,贷款融资和直接融资与GDP之间存在双向影响关系,GDP对影子银行融资具有一定的正向作用,但影子银行融资发展对GDP的增长效应并不明显,同时,直接融资和影子银行融资占比上升对货币政策有效性的影响在增强。因此,货币当局应将社会融资规模纳入货币政策中介目标体系,通过金融创新有效推进价格型货币政策工具运用,加强影子银行的监测和预警,从而提高货币政策的有效性。
This paper chooses monthly data between May in 2006 and November in 2015, Which divides social financing into three parts including traditional financing, direct financing and shadow banking financing. By using VAR model the paoer studies the influence on the efifectiveness of the monetary policy with social financing structure change. Through the Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition,we be found a bidirectional relationship between traditional finance,direct financing and GDP. Though it is not obvious that shadow bank financing development can promote GDP growth, there is still a positive correlation . Meanwhile,it will facilitate the effectiveness of monetary policy with the increasing proportion of financing in direct finance and shadow bank. Finally, on the bases of analysis ,it puts forward a way to build a system of multivariable intermediary monetary policy , improving the effectiveness of monetary policy, and reforming monetary policy tools of our country.
出处
《铜陵学院学报》
2016年第5期37-41,44,共6页
Journal of Tongling University
关键词
社会融资结构
货币政策有效性
影子银行
VAR模型
the structure of social financing
the effectiveness of monetary policy
shadow banking
VAR model
