摘要
基于集中指数、人口重心迁移和ESDA分析方法,对2003—2014年东北三省36个地级市的人口分布的时空演化特征进行分析。结果表明:2003以来,东北地区人口密度增长速度大大减缓,多数地区年均增长量出现负值;人口重心由东北向西南方向移动;人口分布呈不均衡态势,且人口集中指数在不断增大;人口分布存在较强的正的空间关联性,但这种态势有所弱化。在研究人口分布的影响因素时,引入空间计量模型,经判别检验后,确立SLM为最优模型,SLM的计量分析结果显示:年平均气温,年降水量,第二、三产业比重,基础教育质量,医疗服务水平以及人均可支配收入水平对东北地区的人口分布产生正效应,人均固定资产投资产生负效应。因此,要想促进东北地区人口合理分布,必须合理调整产业结构,加快第二产业优化升级,大力培育配套的第三产业,实现就业需求大增;加大对基础教育与医疗卫生服务等领域的投资;在增加社会固定资产投资的同时,提升市场化程度,深化国有企业改革,提高企业创新能力。
The current researches of influencing factor of population distribution have been focus on theoretical analysis and traditional regression model, the study on the space factor is less. This study explored the characteristics of population distribution of 36 cities in Northeast China from 2003 to 2014, basing on population concentration index, population gravity center model, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The research conclusions are as following： firstly, since 2003, the population density increases slowly, even with negative growth in some areas; secondly, the population gravity center moves from northeast to southwest, the population distribution is significantly imbalanced and concentration index increases gradually; thirdly, the population distribution displays a strong and positive spatial correlation, but the tendency is weaker than the past. Finally, this paper introduces spatial econometric model when analyzing the influencing factors of population distribution, and the SLM is the optimal model after the relevant discrimination test. The SLM evaluating results show that annual average temperature, annual precipitation, secondary industry and tertiary industry, quality of elementary education, medical service ability and disposable income level have a positive effect on population agglomeration in northeast China; on the contrary, the effect of the per capita investment in fixed assets does no good to population gathering. Therefore, in order to promote the rational distribution of population in the northeast, this paper proposes some suggestions： rationally adjusting the industrial structure, accelerating the upgrading of the second industry and cultivating matching third industries with the second, to achieve a large increase in employment demand; strengthening the investment in the field of basic education and medical and health services, etc.; increasing the social investment in fixed assets at the same time, improving the degree of marketization, and deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises, improve the innovation capacity of enterprises.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第12期60-68,共9页
Economic Geography
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(16BJL032)
关键词
人口分布
时空演变
影响因素
空间计量模型
东北地区
population distribution
temporal-spatial evolution
influencing factor
spatial econometric model
Northeast China
