摘要
选取了1961-2014年呼和浩特地区气候资料,结合同一时期发生的El Nino/La Nina事件,对气温、降水量和干旱特征与El Nino/La Nina事件的关系进行了统计分析,初步探讨了El Nino/La Nina事件对呼和浩特地区气候的影响。分析结果表明:1961年以来呼和浩特地区气温具有明显的波动升高的趋势;降水量年代际变化较为明显,20世纪60、70年代,降水为正距平;20世纪80、90年代,以及21世纪前10年,降水均为负距平,2011年以后降水开始逐渐增多。El Nino/La Nina事件对呼和浩特地区气候变化和干旱灾害具有一定的影响,El Nino年气温偏高,La Nina年气温偏低;El Nino和La Nina事件对呼和浩特地区降水都有减少的作用,El Nino事件中,降水量减少的概率和幅度更大。El Nino事件提高了呼和浩特地区发生干旱的概率;La Nina事件促使发生干旱的概率较小,但其促使发生干旱的程度可能更深一些。
Based on the statistics of the El Nino/La Nina events and the meteorological data, the relationship be- tween the characteristics of temperature, precipitation and drought and El Nino/La Nina events has been statistical- ly analyzed. The effects of El Nino/La Nina events on the climate in Hohhot have been discussed. The results show, since 1961 in Hohhot, the temperature has obviously increased in wavy way; the decadal variation of precip- itation is obvious, the precipitation in 1960s and 1970s was positive anomaly; in 1980s and 1990s, as well as in 2000s, the precipitation was negative anomaly, and the precipitation has increased gradually after 2011. El Nino/ La Nina events have influenced the climate change and drought disaster in Hohhot, the temperature is higher in El Nino years with lower in La Nina years. El Nino/La Nina events can decrease the precipitation in Hohhot, and in El Nino events, the precipitation has decreased in a larger probability and amplitude. El Nino events has increased the probability of occurring the drought in Hohhot, the probability of occurring the drought caused by La Nina e- vents is small, but the drought may be in a little deeper degree.
作者
杨彩云
张金硕
张国栋
苏伦嘎
YANG Cai - yun ZHANG Jin - shuo ZHANG Guo - dong Sulunga(Hohhot Meteorological Bureau, Inner Mongolia, Hohhot 010020, China Art College of Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot 010010, China Inner Mongolia Institute of Forestry Monitoring and Planning, Hohhot 010020, China)
出处
《内蒙古林业科技》
2016年第4期40-44,48,共6页
Journal of Inner Mongolia Forestry Science and Technology
