摘要
目的：预测某县级综合医院2015年人均住院费用,为患者住院与卫生部门制定卫生决策提供依据。方法：分析2006-2014年住院费用历史资料,用最小二乘法建立直线回归模型,计算标准估计误差,修正预测模型,并用所建立的回归模型对该县级综合医院2015年人均住院费用进行预测。结果：时序t与人均住院费用Y之间存在线性回归关系,随着时间的增长,该综合医院人均住院费用不断上升。预测该县级综合医院2015年人均住院费用为2907.63元,95%可信区间为2563.72～3521.54元。结论：人均住院费用逐年增长,反映了卫生资源配置中存在的效益问题。应给医院提供一些参考建议,以减轻住院患者的医药费用负担,推动医院和谐发展。
Objective：To predict the per capita hospital cost in a county general hospital in 2015 in order to provide the evidence for the patients and health department formulating the health policy. Methods：The historical data of patients from 2006 to 2014 were analyzed. The linear regression model was established using the least sum of squares,the estimating standard error was calculated,and the forecasting model was amended. The per capita hospital cost in a county general hospital in 2015 was predicted using the regression model. Results：The relation of time（ t） and per capita hospital cost（ Y） was linear regression. With the time prolonging,the per capita hospital cost increased continuously. The predictive value of per capita hospital cost in a county general hospital in 2015 was 2907. 63 Yuan,the 95% of the confidence interval was 2 563. 72 to 3 521. 54 Yuan. Conclusions：The per capita hospital cost increasing with years reflects the beneficial problems of health resource allocation. Some suggestions should be provided,which can lighten the burden of inpatient medical cost,and promote the development of hospital harmony.
作者
周强
ZHOU Qiang(Department of Nursing, Bengbu Medical College, Bengbu Anhui 233030, Chin)
出处
《蚌埠医学院学报》
CAS
2016年第11期1499-1501,共3页
Journal of Bengbu Medical College
关键词
费用
医疗
回归模型
预测
cost,medical care
regression model
prediction
