摘要
促进中国风能的大规模开发利用,需要对风能发展的阻碍因素有清晰量化的认识。以中国CDM风电项目为例,使用结构方程模型(SEM),本文对阻碍中国风能产业发展的影响因素进行了系统考察。在以降低风能投资成本为主要目标的考虑下,研究发现:短期内,风能设备缺乏是导致投资成本高昂的主要原因;中期内,产业R&D能力不足、地方基础设施不完善是导致投资成本高昂的主要原因;长期内,影响风能投资成本的主要因素则是国家政策的缺乏和风能的间歇性特征。研究结论对促进中国风能发展具有重要政策含义。就短期目标而言,决策者可将重点放在强化本土化设备与零组件的制造、生产;就中期规划而言,决策者可同时着重产业R&D能力的提升与地方基础设施的改善;就长远规划而言,决策者既要重视国家政策的制定与适当框架制度的建立,同时也要妥善应对风能的间歇性特征对风能发展的不利影响。
To promote the large-scale development and utilization of wind energy in China, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of the factors that hinder the development of wind energy. Based on the Clean Development Mechanism （CDM） wind power project in China, using structural equation modeling （SEM） , this paper makes a systematic study on the factors that hinder the development of China＇s wind energy industry. It is found that： in the short term, a lack of wind power equipment is main reason leading to high investment cost; in the medium term, the imperfect industrial R＆D ability and the insufficiency of local infrastructure are major causes for high investment cost of wind power project ; in long term, the main factors affecting the cost of wind energy investment is lack of national policy and the characteristic of intermittency of wind power. Research conclusions have important policy implications for the promotion of wind energy development in china. As to short-term goals, decision makers can focus on strengthening the localization of equipment and part＇s manufacturing and production; as to medium term planning, decision makers may focus on the improvement of industry R＆D capability and improving the local infrastructure as well; as to long-term development planning, decision makers may attach importance to the establishment of national policy and appropriate institutional framework, and meanwhile to properly dealing with intermittency of wind energy for its adverse effect on development of wind power.
作者
高建刚
马中东
王丙毅
GAO Jian-gang MA Zhong-dong WANG Bing-yi(School of Business, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252059, Chin)
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第12期24-36,共13页
China Soft Science
基金
国家社科基金重点项目(13AJL013)
中国博士后基金面上项目(2013M541888)
关键词
CDM风能项目
发展障碍
投资成本
结构方程模型
wind energy CDM project
development obstacle
investment cost
Structure Equation Model（SEM）
