摘要
中美作为亚太最大的加工生产国和消费中心主导着亚太区域合作的发展。本文在介绍亚太生产链发展及TPP与RCEP两大亚太合作机制基础上,基于生产链视角,利用拓展的GTAP比较静态可计算一般均衡模型,模拟比较了TPP和RCEP协议。结果显示,无论是加入TPP或是加入RCEP均有助于提高区内成员国当期贸易进出口总额、当期国内生产总值与社会总福利水平。然而,单独加入TPP或RCEP对各成员国会产生不同程度的机会成本;TPP与RCEP协议在推动自贸区内加工产业由中国向其他发展中国家转移的同时,也会促进这些国家与中国中间投入品贸易的增长;我国在持续提升本国比较优势及在全球生产链中位次的同时,不断整合周边国家产业,逐渐从"两极互补"转向"承上启下"。全球产业链向广度与深度的不断延伸符合我国利益。
China and the US, as Asia-Pacific＇s the largest producers and consumers, dominate the Asia- Pacific regional cooperation development. In this paper, we introduce Asia-Pacific production chain develop- ment and two basic Asia-Pacific Cooperation Mechanism of TPP and RCEP. Based on production chain per- spective, we simulate and compare TPP and RCEP agreement by expanding GTAP comparative static computa- ble general equilibrium model The resuhs show that joining either TPP or RCEP will improve the Member States＇ current import and.export trade, GDP and social welfare in the region. However, the opportunity cost is different for the Member States to join TPP or RCEP alone; TPP and RCEP agreement promote processing in- dustry transferring from China to other developing countries in free trade zone and also improve intermediate goods trade between them; China is enhancing comparative advantage and the precedence order in the global production chain, and integrating the neighboring countries＇ industry gradually from ＂bipolar complementary＂ to ＂nexus＂. Global industrial chain＇s extending in both breadth and depth is in line with China＇s interests.
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第1期49-60,共12页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金"中国宏观动态可计算一般均衡及其应用"(项目编号:SKZZX2013009)
