摘要
利用1959-2014年间的实测地面逐月气温资料,通过相关分析,小波分析和Mann-Kendall突变分析等方法研究了古浪河流域气温的变化特征。结果表明,近56年来该流域气温呈明显的上升趋势,流域上游的乌鞘岭地区年平均气温以0.42℃·(10a)-1的幅度升高,流域下游的古浪盆地升温幅度为0.48℃·(10a)-1,该区月平均最高和最低、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季气温均显著增加,流域下游气温的增幅总体高于上游。年平均气温的增加主要归因于夏季、秋季和冬季气温的升高。年平均气温存在11年尺度的主周期,在整个研究时段古浪河流域经历了6次由低温周期到高温周期的往复变化过程。无论年平均气温还是各季节平均气温,上游地区的气温突变发生时间普遍早于下游地区,进一步表明高海拔地区较低海拔地区对气候变化的响应更为敏感。
The variation characteristics of temperature in the Gulang River Basin in the period of 1959-2014 were examined using the monthly temperature dataset with the Correction analysis,Wavelet Analysis and Mann-Kendall Analysis. The result showthat temperature increased significantly over the past 56 years at annual and seasonal scales. Specifically,the annual mean temperature of the Gulang River Basin in creased with an average warming rate of about 0. 42 ℃ ·（ 10a）-1in the upper reaches and about 0. 48 ℃ ·（ 10a）-1in the lower reaches. Warming rate in the lower reaches were generally much higher than in the upper reaches. The significant increase of annual mean temperature could mostly be attributed to the remarkable warming trend in summer,autumn and winter. The annual mean temperature had a prominent cycle of 11 years,it made the local climate changed from cold to warm about six times during 1959-2014. The abrupt changes of annual and seasonal mean temperatures in the upper reaches have happened early compared with the lower reaches,indicating the high altitude regions were more sensitive to climate change. This research is not only helpful in improving understanding of temperature response to global warming in the basin but also provides a basis for basin management.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第6期1615-1624,共10页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
国家自然基金项目(30970492
41201024)
中国科学院冻土工程国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLFSE201511)
关键词
干旱区
气温
趋势变化
周期
突变分析
Arid region
Air temperature
Trend variation
Cycle period
Mutation analysis
