摘要
在我国制造业中,需求预测不准确是导致库存居高不下的主要原因之一。文章通过构建基于灰色理论与指数平滑法的需求预测综合模型,对B公司M5A福美来新车型的需求量进行预测,以总成本最小为目标确定最优初始库存量,并依据客户的长期需求对发货策略进行分析与调整。研究表明,基于灰色理论与指数平滑法的需求预测综合模型具有较高的可靠性与实用性,能为B公司采购与生产决策提供理论依据和支撑。
In China＇s manufacturing industry, the inaccuracy of demand forecasting is one of the main reasons to high inventory. In this paper, we build a new model which combing gray theory with exponential smoothing method to forecast the demand of a new type car called M5A of company B. Ensuring the optimal initial inventory on the target of the minimal total cost, analyzing and adjusting delivery strategy according to the long-term needs of our customers. The research shows that the comprehensive model of demand forecasting based on Grey Theory and exponential smoothing method has high reliability and practicability, and can provide theoretical basis and support for company B＇s purchasing and production decision.
出处
《统计与决策》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第1期72-76,共5页
Statistics & Decision
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(10YJA630043)
江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学基金项目(2011SJB630007)
江苏大学高级专业人才科研启动基金项目(11JDG005)
关键词
需求预测
指数平滑法
灰色模型
Demand forecasting
exponential smoothing
gray model
