摘要
基于2003—2012年176个国家(地区)的跨国数据,本文将技术进步、产业结构转型升级和所有制改革纳入一个统一的分析框架考察中国对外直接投资(OFDI)规模持续扩张的内在动力,得出如下主要结论:(1)技术进步对OFDI具有显著的推动作用;产业结构合理化和高级化均对OFDI具有显著的正向影响;所有制改革形成的多元投资主体会促进OFDI的逐年扩张。(2)考虑技术进步和经济结构转型的交互作用,技术进步与产业结构合理化之间呈现显著的互补效应;技术进步与产业结构高级化以及所有制结构改革之间均表现出显著的替代效应。(3)考虑东道国经济发展的异质性,不论在发达国家还是在发展中国家,技术进步、产业结构合理化和高级化均会促进OFDI的扩张;所有制改革则会促进对发展中国家的直接投资而未对发达国家产生显著的影响。本文的结论对于模型设定、主要变量的替代以及估计方法的选择均是稳健的,以期此研究为理解中国OFDI逐年扩张的内在机理以及进一步为加快实施"走出去"战略提供现实的借鉴。
Using the data of 176 countries （regions）from 2003 to 2012, this paper empirically studies the intrinsic powers of China＇s OFDI expansion from three aspects, including techno- logical progress, industrial structure change and ownership reforms. The main results show that（l） the technological progress plays a significant positive role; （2）The rationalization of industrial structure and industrial structure upgrading have both positive effects on OFDI; （3） The ownership reform also has a positive effect. The interaction between the technological progress and rationalization of industrial structure has a significant complementarily effect, but there is a substitution effect between the technological progress and industrial structure upgrading and between the technological progress and the ownership reform. Meanwhile, according to the level of economic development, this paper also examines the different effects in OECD and non- OECD countries. The technological progress, the rationalization of industrial structure and in- dustrial structure upgrading play a significant positive role in both developing and developed countries respectively. However, the ownership reform has only a positive effect in developing countries, but not in developed ones. The above conclusions are robust to alternative variables and regression functions. This study can be benefit to understand the mechanism of China＇s OFDI expansion in depth, and provide a practical reference for China＇s ＂Going Out＂ strategy.
作者
宫汝凯
李洪亚
Gong Rukai Li Hongya(Glorious Sun School of Business and Management, Donghua University, Shanghai 200051, China Business School, NingboUniversity, Ningbo315211, China)
出处
《南开经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第6期56-77,共22页
Nankai Economic Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71503037)
国家社会科学基金青年项目(14CJY064)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(13D210803)
全国统计科学项目(2015LY39)的资助
关键词
技术进步
产业结构转型升级
所有制改革
OFDI
Technological Progress
Industrial Structure Transformation
Ownership Reforms
Outward Foreign Direct Investment
