摘要
精确地评价养老服务设施空间的可达性是进行养老服务设施资源合理配置的前提。近年来,在"十二五规划"的大背景下,南京市养老服务设施发展迅速,然而快速的人口老龄化现象致使养老服务设施的供给依旧不能满足老年人口对养老服务设施的需求。本文运用Arc GIS中的核密度估计方法,在对养老服务设施空间分布特征研究的基础之上,采用OD成本矩阵计算了人口重心到养老设施的出行时间,据此采用两步移动搜索法测算了南京市养老服务设施的空间可达性,重点对1h单一有效服务阈值和按养老服务设施规模划分的三级有效服务阈值两种情况下的可达性进行比较分析。结果显示:(1)南京市养老服务设施总体分布呈现中心凝聚—外围分散的特征;空间热点分布呈现蔓延扩散和非均衡扩散混合模式,出现"跨江发展"和"郊县发展"的空间形态。(2)不同性质类型养老服务设施空间布局模式存在很大差异,公办公营养老服务设施呈现"多核心"布局模式,公办民营呈现"双核心"模式,民办民营呈现"单核心"模式,敬老院呈现"均匀式"布局态势。(3)南京市养老服务设施可达性呈现中心城区可达床位数由东南向西北方向递减,主城区北高南低,郊区南高北低的分布格局,1h单一有效服务阈值评价南京市养老服务设施空间可达性更为合理。
Accurate evaluation of the accessibility of the service facilities is the premise of reasonable allocation of pension services facilities resources. In recent years, in the background of the 12th Five Year Plan, Nanjing pension service facilities are developing rapidly, however, the aging of the population is still the supply of the old service facilities cannot meet the needs of the elderly population for the service facilities. This paper used the kernel density estimation method in ArcGIS to study the spatial distribution of pension services. The travel time of population center of gravity to pension facilities is calculated by O D cost matrix. Based on this, the two step mobile search method is used to estimate the spatial accessibility of pension service facilities in Nanjing. The paper focused on one-hour single effective service threshold and three cases of the size of service facilities by the service threshold of two cases of the accessibility of the comparison analysis. The results show： （i]The overall distribution of the pension service facilities in Nanjing presents the characteristics of the central agglomeration periphery dispersion; The spatial hotspot distribution is spreading and spreading and spreading and spreading pattern is presented, the spatial form of ＂cross river development＂ and ＂rural development＂. （g]Great differences exist in different types of pension service facilities space layout mode, public-public pension service facilities present ＂multi-core＂ layout mode, privatization has ＂dual core＂ pattern, the private enterprise has the single core mode and homes for the elderly has uniform style ＂layout of the situation.（~Nanjing pension service facilities accessibility has beds in center city up to decreasing from southeast to northwest, the beds of the north in the center city are more than ones of the south in the center city, on the contrary in the suburb. One-hour single effective service threshold for the assessment of pension service facilities in Nanjing city space accessibility is more reasonable.
出处
《现代城市研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第2期1-11,共11页
Modern Urban Research
基金
江苏省高校哲学社会科学重大基金项目(111040A1111)
国家自然科学基金项目(41371518)
江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(地理学)
关键词
城乡规划
老化
养老设施
人口老龄化
聚焦
供需矛盾
社会建设
人口数量
pension service facilities
kernel density estimation
accessibility
2-step floating catchment area method
Nanjing
